大丽7613

Many people are discussing whether BTC has bottomed. Here are my observations on the market.

As the broader market came under pressure, BTC retested its lows and showed relatively strong resilience. It has now reached a key support area from earlier, but whether it can stabilize remains to be seen.

BTC has reached 78,500. Can it continue moving higher from here? By contrast, Sol has remained weak. What’s really going on?

Let’s start with Sol. Many of you probably know that its price swings are usually much larger than BTC’s. For example, if BTC rises 50%, and Sol goes from 60 to 120, that’s a 100% gain. This volatility can also work in the other direction during a downturn.

If BTC pulls back, Sol’s price swings may be more pronounced. Because of this greater volatility, many market participants are watching closely to see how much ground it could recover. Of course, this is just a market observation and doesn’t mean that any particular move is certain.

Now let’s look at BTC. This rebound has already reached its first target of 78,500, where there is some selling pressure, making an immediate breakout unlikely. As I’ve mentioned before, when the price reaches a resistance area, it’s worth watching how buyers and sellers interact.

As for where the market goes from here, different people use different frameworks to assess it. Some focus on how the market behaves around key price levels, while others pay more attention to macroeconomic conditions and changes in capital flows. No method can guarantee an accurate market forecast.

Markets change rapidly. This content is only a review of my personal market views and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies carry extremely high risks, so please approach them rationally.

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😢 Woke up to news that Binance had been hacked, and BTC plunged in response.
The market had anticipated countless possibilities, but no one expected this sudden black swan event. Rumors online put the amount stolen at 5 billion, but fortunately, half the funds have been successfully frozen. The actual losses are manageable, and the platform has promised full compensation. Exchanges have suffered hacks before, too.

Bitcoin has strong support around 76,400, with the previous low of 75,000 as another key level. Spot buyers can look for opportunities to build positions in stages. For those waiting to buy the dip, this unexpected drop has created a chance to enter at lower prices.

The crypto market's recovery will most likely be delayed by a few weeks—good things take time. Once we weather this period of volatility, the market may have a chance to move higher.

Is Wall Street quietly moving in? As Bitcoin continues to languish, ETF funds are starting to buy heavily! What exactly is happening behind the scenes?

1. As the chart shows, Wall Street has chosen this moment to buy the dip. After several weeks of sustained net outflows, Bitcoin ETFs have turned to net inflows, with average purchases of $500 million over the past five days! Does this mean BTC is about to rebound?
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2. An opportunity is gradually approaching! Bitcoin has been in a prolonged downtrend for over a month, and as the correction drags on, the odds of a rebound are rising. Even in a bear market, an extended decline is often followed by a recovery bounce. Most investors looking to take profits have already cashed out and left, so a Bitcoin rebound could kick off at any moment—all it needs is some positive news to ignite the market!
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3. Keep an eye on two key windows: the Fed’s policy meeting, from Wednesday night into the early hours of Thursday next week. If the Fed holds rates steady, the market will likely price in expectations of a rebound. Also worth watching is the PCE inflation data at 8:30 p.m. Thursday. As long as inflation doesn’t come in higher than expected, it should be positive for the market.
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4. From a candlestick-chart perspective, Bitcoin’s major resistance is currently at $84,000, with secondary resistance around $82,500—you can see it on the chart. We previously opened short positions several times at these two levels. If the market tests them again, those holding long positions may consider trimming some of their positions. More aggressive traders could try a small short position.

Is Bitcoin saved? Oil prices pull back—could a rebound be coming? 👀

Over the weekend, U.S. crude briefly surged to $105. Geopolitical tensions pushed up oil prices and weighed on global risk assets. Then, as news developments shifted, oil prices plunged 5% in a single day, while U.S. stocks and crypto markets showed signs of recovery.

Many people are wondering: where will BTC go from here?
Recent geopolitical events show just how strongly macro news can affect risk assets. But there’s one trend worth watching: despite a barrage of negative news lately—with U.S.-Iran tensions and the Red Sea situation taking turns rattling markets—Bitcoin’s losses have been relatively limited. It pulled back only slightly, from around $82,000 to $80,000, showing some resilience compared with U.S. stocks.

If negative news can’t push prices much lower, any positive catalysts that emerge could give the market room to rebound.
From a technical perspective, keep an eye on the key support zone around $78,200, an area where market participants are likely to be closely watching price action.

As for oil, we had previously observed a five-wave upward structure. The fifth wave was nearing its peak, after which prices pulled back. The timing of this latest macro-driven move is worth reviewing.

But let’s stay clear-eyed: geopolitical tensions could flare up again at any time, while inflation data and policy expectations remain uncertain. There are no guarantees in the market.
All market observations are for my personal review only and do not constitute any recommendation to buy or sell. Crypto assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk, so be sure to manage your position size and only trade within your means.

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The overall trend for BTC is still bullish, so patience is needed. I'm still holding spot; during the medium-term consolidation, just take it slowly.

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Oh my God! The data blew past expectations, with CPI inflation higher than expected across the board!
Expectations for a rate hike at the October policy meeting have surged.
But a rate hike at the end of October is still highly unlikely. This is just a short-term negative, and the market needs time to digest it!

Thank you all for your support!