#pons It just keeps falling. When will it finally go up?

First, why has it kept falling? (It’s not due to a single negative catalyst, but to four factors piling up.)

1. Interest in the Robinhood Chain has cooled across the board: on-chain DEX trading volume has fallen from its September 4 peak of $3.51 billion to $1.21 billion now, a 65.5% drop.

2. Platform revenue has collapsed, leaving too little “ammo” for buybacks: Pons’s daily revenue fell from over $2 million on September 5 to around $72,000, a 96% drop.

And PONS’s price logic is “80% of revenue goes to buybacks and burns.” With revenue gone, the buying pressure disappears. The team has also acknowledged that the burn rate wasn’t adjusted in time and that the claiming process isn’t yet fully decentralized. They’re upgrading the contract, and the new mechanism will allow claims every 7 days, with all proceeds used for buybacks and burns.

3. Negative ecosystem events: On September 28, a series of rug pulls on Robinhood Chain came to light. The same group was linked to 53 token launches over two months and cashed out approximately $18.43 million;

At the same time, the Robinhood CEO reduced his holdings by 375,000 shares, while Cathie Wood’s ARKK sold approximately 152,000 shares. HOOD’s share price fell from 127.42 to 108.8.

4. Competition and diversion: Uniswap’s Pools.trade entered the same sector with zero fees, and its launch-day issuance volume already exceeded Pons’s. Funds are also being diverted to the Solana ecosystem as it rebounds.

When could it rise? Watch these 4 signals—they’re more useful than watching candlestick charts

Can the platform’s daily revenue recover? This is the only genuine source of buying pressure. Buybacks can support the price only if revenue climbs from $72,000 to $500,000 or $1 million.

Weekly burn volume following the rollout of the new buyback mechanism: 32% of the total supply has been burned so far, and the weekly burn amount will be a verifiable hard metric after the mechanism upgrade.

Liquidity realization from exchange listings: Coinbase, Upbit (KRW/BTC/USDT), and Bithumb listed it around the same time on October 8, but this has yet to be reflected in the price. Next, watch to see whether trading volumes on these exchanges pick up.

HOOD’s share price and the BTC environment: PONS has a weak correlation with the broader market and is driven mainly by its own fundamentals, but HOOD is a sentiment anchor.

What will really determine whether it can rise again is whether launch activity on Robinhood Chain can pick up a second time. If it doesn’t, buybacks and burns alone will struggle to withstand the selling pressure.