The Fed minutes dropped in the early hours: hawkish in tone, but softer in action.
Most officials thought another rate hike might be needed this year, but stressed there was no rush to act and that they would watch the data—raising the odds of a pause in October.
Decoding the minutes’ jargon: “Open mind” leaves room to maneuver; “possibly another hike by year-end” is meant to prepare markets; and some officials plainly said current rates aren’t restrictive enough, so don’t expect rate cuts anytime soon.
Market pricing: nearly an 80% chance of no move in October, with the real showdown in December, when the odds of a hike top 70%. The 10-year Treasury auction yield hit 5.3%, its highest since 2000, with only lukewarm demand. US stocks strengthened, but risks are lurking beneath the surface in the bond market—don’t let the sea of green fool you.
The minutes provide further confirmation that October is safe for now; the real risk is being set up for December. We’ll go over two possible playbooks for gold and crypto in the chatroom—come join us 👇点击进入聊天室
Most officials thought another rate hike might be needed this year, but stressed there was no rush to act and that they would watch the data—raising the odds of a pause in October.
Decoding the minutes’ jargon: “Open mind” leaves room to maneuver; “possibly another hike by year-end” is meant to prepare markets; and some officials plainly said current rates aren’t restrictive enough, so don’t expect rate cuts anytime soon.
Market pricing: nearly an 80% chance of no move in October, with the real showdown in December, when the odds of a hike top 70%. The 10-year Treasury auction yield hit 5.3%, its highest since 2000, with only lukewarm demand. US stocks strengthened, but risks are lurking beneath the surface in the bond market—don’t let the sea of green fool you.
The minutes provide further confirmation that October is safe for now; the real risk is being set up for December. We’ll go over two possible playbooks for gold and crypto in the chatroom—come join us 👇点击进入聊天室