BTC’s decline today is different.
Since peaking at 86,700, it hasn’t had a meaningful bounce. A single 4-hour candle plunged more than $2,000, with volume equal to the combined volume of the previous three candles. This isn’t random volatility—someone is actively driving the price down.
BTC is currently at 83,528, down 3.04% over the past 24 hours. ETH is more noteworthy: it fell 4.86% over the same period, and its relative strength is starting to break down. ETH is underperforming BTC by more than 1.8 percentage points. This kind of divergence often appears before a trend reversal—the weaker asset falls first.
Derivatives data reveal the nature of this decline: funding rates have been negative for two consecutive days, meaning shorts are paying. This suggests the market is no longer seeing a pullback driven by leveraged longs chasing the rally; real short positions are pushing prices down. BTC open interest stands at 97,089 coins, with no large-scale liquidations compared with the peak. That suggests bears are still adding to their positions and haven’t started taking profits yet.
My current view: 83,000–83,500 is the first support zone, with a dense cluster of stop-loss orders. Bulls need to hold this level. If it fails, the next level to watch is 81,500, the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
I’m not chasing shorts for now. The price is already too low, so the risk-reward on chasing a short isn’t attractive. I’m waiting for one of two opportunities: first, if 83,000 holds and a bullish engulfing pattern forms, I’ll take a small position on a bounce, targeting 85,000. Second, if the price breaks straight through 83,000, I’ll wait for a bounce after momentum slows and volume contracts, then look for an entry, with the stop-loss below the previous low.
I’m staying away from ETH. An asset that underperforms the broader market is unlikely to outperform it on the rebound either, so the risk-reward isn’t good enough.
There’s no need to rush into a decision today. Wait for the structure to become clear.
Follow me for a livestream every night at 21:00 + SMC lessons
🌿 Zhao, Unannounced | Not financial advice
Since peaking at 86,700, it hasn’t had a meaningful bounce. A single 4-hour candle plunged more than $2,000, with volume equal to the combined volume of the previous three candles. This isn’t random volatility—someone is actively driving the price down.
BTC is currently at 83,528, down 3.04% over the past 24 hours. ETH is more noteworthy: it fell 4.86% over the same period, and its relative strength is starting to break down. ETH is underperforming BTC by more than 1.8 percentage points. This kind of divergence often appears before a trend reversal—the weaker asset falls first.
Derivatives data reveal the nature of this decline: funding rates have been negative for two consecutive days, meaning shorts are paying. This suggests the market is no longer seeing a pullback driven by leveraged longs chasing the rally; real short positions are pushing prices down. BTC open interest stands at 97,089 coins, with no large-scale liquidations compared with the peak. That suggests bears are still adding to their positions and haven’t started taking profits yet.
My current view: 83,000–83,500 is the first support zone, with a dense cluster of stop-loss orders. Bulls need to hold this level. If it fails, the next level to watch is 81,500, the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
I’m not chasing shorts for now. The price is already too low, so the risk-reward on chasing a short isn’t attractive. I’m waiting for one of two opportunities: first, if 83,000 holds and a bullish engulfing pattern forms, I’ll take a small position on a bounce, targeting 85,000. Second, if the price breaks straight through 83,000, I’ll wait for a bounce after momentum slows and volume contracts, then look for an entry, with the stop-loss below the previous low.
I’m staying away from ETH. An asset that underperforms the broader market is unlikely to outperform it on the rebound either, so the risk-reward isn’t good enough.
There’s no need to rush into a decision today. Wait for the structure to become clear.
Follow me for a livestream every night at 21:00 + SMC lessons
🌿 Zhao, Unannounced | Not financial advice