When this CETUS alert pops up, you can tell just by the numbers that it’s not a good sign. Over 24h it’s only -2.5%, which looks slow, but breaking it down it’s ugly: 5m -4.4%, 1h -6.9%. This is the kind that just got smashed down—not a slow, grindy decline. Volume ratio is 16.3x, and it’s a sell-off on rising volume. The trades are all sell orders getting dumped downward. With this kind of volume-price combination, the “quality” is very poor.

Now look at the position. Current price is 0.02589; the 24h range is 0.02432 to 0.02896. It has already pulled back 11.86% from the high point, and there’s only 6.06% of room left from the low. The moving averages: MA7 0.02614, MA25 0.02723, MA99 0.02777. The short-term trend is in a bearish alignment. The current price is below MA7, so the structure is on the weak side. RSI is only 18—yes, it’s oversold—but oversold doesn’t mean a bottom is in. In a downtrend, RSI can stay on the floor for a long time. Don’t use this as a reason to buy the dip.

Here, the contracts don't feel very certain. The open interest changed by -6.41%: positions were reduced and exited. This isn't new money coming in to bottom-fish—it’s capital inside the market running away. The funding rate is 0.0050%, with long/short leverage balanced. Sentiment isn’t at an extreme; that means we haven’t yet seen panic selling that clears everyone out. Even the robot itself said the directional accuracy is only 44%. Wait for a breakout to confirm the direction before entering—don’t take one-sided trades blindly.

The idea is clear: don't chase shorts from here, and don’t catch falling knives. What you want to do is wait for a pullback to around 0.02432 and see whether it can hold. If it holds, try a long with a small position and place the stop-loss below 0.024. The first target is to look at the MA7 around 0.02614; once it passes, then look at 0.02723. If it breaks down directly with increased volume below 0.02432, then don’t touch it—wait for the next 1h candlestick to confirm the direction.

What’s most taboo right now is getting antsy because of RSI 18—buying oversold levels and catching falling knives. In ten times, eight times you’ll just be lifted along. Wait for confirmation. It’s not embarrassing.

Quick data snapshot: current price 0.02589 | 24h -2.50% | volume ratio 16.3 | RSI 18 | fee rate 0.0050%

That’s all for now. Everyone, pay attention to risk.

—— 22:33 Market notes