$TRUMP
$XAU Urgent: Statements from the Fed unsettle
The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting on September 15–16, unanimously 12–0, to a range of 3.75%–4.00% — the first hike since 2023. But instead of closing the file on monetary tightening, the back-to-back statements by Federal officials in the days immediately following opened an even more pressing question: Is this first hike the beginning of a series, or was it a one-off adjustment? The answer, based on last week’s statements and the “dot plot” data itself, increasingly leans clearly toward the first possibility.
What the “dot plot” officially says
Out of 18 members providing forecasts within the “Summary of Economic Projections” (Fed Chair Jerome Powell does not provide a personal forecast, per his usual approach), 16 members believe that at least one additional rate hike is necessary before the end of the year, while only two members are content with a September hike. As a result, the expected midpoint for the end-of-2026 interest rate jumped to 4.1% (from 3.8% in the June forecasts) — a clear escalation along the path within just three months. As for 2027, expectations point to relative stability afterward, with a nearly even split among members over whether another hike is needed that year. In addition, the long-term estimate of the “neutral rate” rose to 3.2% (median) and 3.3% (average) — the highest level since the pandemic — signaling that the committee is reassessing the level of the “neutral” rate itself upward, not just the tightening path
$XAU Urgent: Statements from the Fed unsettle
The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting on September 15–16, unanimously 12–0, to a range of 3.75%–4.00% — the first hike since 2023. But instead of closing the file on monetary tightening, the back-to-back statements by Federal officials in the days immediately following opened an even more pressing question: Is this first hike the beginning of a series, or was it a one-off adjustment? The answer, based on last week’s statements and the “dot plot” data itself, increasingly leans clearly toward the first possibility.
What the “dot plot” officially says
Out of 18 members providing forecasts within the “Summary of Economic Projections” (Fed Chair Jerome Powell does not provide a personal forecast, per his usual approach), 16 members believe that at least one additional rate hike is necessary before the end of the year, while only two members are content with a September hike. As a result, the expected midpoint for the end-of-2026 interest rate jumped to 4.1% (from 3.8% in the June forecasts) — a clear escalation along the path within just three months. As for 2027, expectations point to relative stability afterward, with a nearly even split among members over whether another hike is needed that year. In addition, the long-term estimate of the “neutral rate” rose to 3.2% (median) and 3.3% (average) — the highest level since the pandemic — signaling that the committee is reassessing the level of the “neutral” rate itself upward, not just the tightening path
