In Liang Laobiao’s interpretation, the pressure from rate hikes and the bill news is already on the table, yet prices have not accelerated their decline in the usual way. His most striking change is this: in the short term, you can no longer use the word “bad news” as an excuse to short on rebounds. $BTC If the 82,000 area can be effectively broken through, then you’d have the right to talk about higher upside. Until a confirmation of the breakout, being bullish is still a scenario with invalidation conditions—it’s not a blind chase.

Liang Laobiao believes that this market move originally had two paths: either use the news to sweep out liquidity below and press deeper, or absorb the selling pressure and, after a period of consolidation, move back upward. He had also considered pullbacks to 72,000, 71,000, or even lower; however, after the bad news was already priced in, the actual decline did not expand according to the pessimistic script. In his view, when the price should have been weak, it did not keep weakening; instead, the bearish force has largely been used up. The signals on the chart have changed, so the trading plan must change too. You can’t, just because you shorted yesterday, insist on holding shorts today as if it were faith.

He repeatedly reminds people that judging a reversal can’t rely on just one line like “it won’t fall further.” On the short-term cycle, first check whether the rebound breaks above the prior high, then check whether the pullback holds support; if the high gets broken and the pullback still doesn’t fail, followed by the market continuing to lift its highs, then the original shorting logic that relied on selling the rallies needs to be removed. This isn’t a promise of an immediate “takeoff.” It’s a reminder to the people who are already on the short side: when price keeps dropping and keeps getting caught again and again, the odds of adding more shorts are worsening. Conversely, if the breakout is a false move, and the pullback falls back through a key low, then the bullish judgment needs to be withdrawn.

On a larger structure, Old Liang views BTC’s current consolidation as a potential “bull flag,” but he leaves the word “potential” very clear: there must be a real body breakout and a hold—staying firm around the 82,000 to 82,200 range—for the formation to be considered further confirmed. If the breakout can be completed, the overhead observation zones he mentioned are first 84,000 to 85,000, then 92,000 to 98,000. These are target zones after conditions are met—not commitments that price will definitely move to them now. If it can’t clear the key level, it may still keep ranging repeatedly; being too eager to treat 90,000 as an assured outcome is just as likely to get you repeatedly swept in and out.

For the downside, he particularly cares whether price can maintain the recent support, rather than mechanically watching only a single candlestick. In the livestream he said that if around 77,000 the price can gradually hold steady, it would strengthen the short-term sell-off stabilization view; the closing position on longer timeframes also needs to be observed. What truly makes him change his mind isn’t that a certain piece of news suddenly disappears, but that after multiple negative catalysts are out in the open, the sell-off order flow still hasn’t smashed the market into a new acceleration leg. Still, he keeps an end-case scenario: if another new black swan appears, or if a key low is effectively broken through, then the earlier “it won’t drop” judgment can’t be forced to apply.

His view of $ETH is more like using relative strength as a supporting reference for BTC. When the broader market is under pressure, Ethereum hasn’t simultaneously printed new lows; in his view, that’s a sign of a strong consolidation. He previously considered that if the area around 2350 were to break down, price might continue toward roughly 2000 to 2200 to find support. But at the time, the chart didn’t actually play out that down-path. Therefore, he leans toward observing whether it can hold the current consolidation range, and then waiting for a lack of follow-through on pullbacks—so the market can turn its head again—rather than shorting relentlessly before that support thesis has been disproven. If the range ultimately breaks down, then the explanation that it was merely a strong consolidation must give way to risk control.

This reminder about $ZEC is especially direct: rising a lot doesn’t mean you should short immediately. Old Liang mentioned that earlier, when he was observing from the 1,200s to the 1,300–1,400 area, the ensuing strength turned many counter-trend short positions into fuel for continued upward moves. He didn’t interpret that as any price level being worth chasing longs. Instead, for people who can’t make sense of the timing, he’d rather advise them not to touch it first. The core issue is not getting anchored and trapped by the price that “has already risen so much.” For high-volatility, strongly-controlled tokens, once the shorts get crowded, just based on the large rise alone you might think you’ve topped—but you may go through several stop-outs without getting the pullback you expected.

If someone wants to participate on the more bullish side, Old Liang’s approach isn’t to rush in with high leverage. He prefers to keep observing long positions that already have a cost advantage. For those without a position, wait until the pullback reduces sell pressure, then try a small position with lower leverage, and place the stop-loss at a level that can prove your judgment wrong—controlling risk according to how much you can personally withstand. He admits this is a “slightly late” attempt: if the market is only rebounding during a down move, it could still adjust again later. The upside space looks tempting, but it doesn’t mean the downside risk can be ignored. Before opening the trade, you should first think through where you would admit you’re wrong.

What he dislikes most is adding to a losing position and using high leverage. If the direction is wrong and you keep topping up margin, when you encounter a one-way market, losses only roll faster and faster. Before trading, it’s best to write down both scenarios—bullish and bearish: what evidence supports your viewpoint, what signals would make you retreat, and how you would handle it if the breakout goes in the opposite direction. Old Liang also mentioned that he once failed to promptly admit a reversal because he was firmly bearish. Setting the conditions to correct beforehand is exactly to prevent your position from getting locked in by emotions and sunk costs after holding for a few days. The market isn’t anyone’s home—being able to turn around in time matters more than arguing about right or wrong.

To sum it up, this isn’t “a negative catalyst hits the market, and then go all-in long immediately.” Old Liang’s baseline judgment is: the current downside has insufficient strength; chasing shorts has poor cost-effectiveness. For BTC, he first looks for support around 77,000, then checks whether a breakout can hold firm in the 82,000 to 82,200 range. For ETH, he looks to see whether it holds its consolidation range; for ZEC, he warns about extreme volatility triggered by crowded shorts. If key support breaks or new risk events appear, the bullish script needs to be re-evaluated. So the question is: will you wait to act after BTC breaks out and then pulls back to confirm, or do you think the first wave of rebound after negative news is released is still something to be wary of for a false breakout?

The above is a整理 of livestream viewpoints and does not constitute investment advice. Volatility is high—control your position size, set stop-losses, and take full responsibility for your own gains and losses.