The real BTC reversal signal is building up, but one piece of data reminds me: it’s not time to call a bull market directly yet.
BTC is currently around $63,000. The price is still grinding through the lows, but a few mid-term signals are starting to change.
First, both the BTC daily and weekly RSI previously showed bullish divergence—price made new lows, but momentum didn’t weaken in the same way—suggesting the marginal downside power from the bears is fading. At the same time, volatility continues to compress. This kind of environment often means the market is accumulating energy to choose its next direction.
Second, derivatives have clearly cooled off. As of Aug 15, the BTC perpetual funding rate is around 0.0085%, far from a crowded long position, indicating that earlier high-leverage speculation has been partially flushed out.
On-chain structure also hasn’t shown full capitulation. Glassnode data shows that as of Aug 14, about 54.5% of BTC supply belongs to long-term holders who are currently in profit.
Macro conditions are also starting to improve at the margin: July CPI rose only +0.1% month over month, +3.4% year over year, and core CPI has fallen to 2.5% year over year—pressure for further rate hikes is easing.
But one data point has to cool things off:
In the past week, US BTC spot ETFs were not net inflows of $1.1 billion; instead, they accumulated net outflows of about $385 million.
So my view is:
Technicals are bottoming out, leverage is being cleared, and the macro picture is improving—but institutional flows have not yet finished confirming.
The truly strong signal isn’t guessing whether $60,000 is the bottom; it’s waiting for:
BTC to break a key resistance level + ETF net inflows to resume consecutively + a healthy rebound in open interest (OI).
Once all three conditions resonate together, the market may be able to truly switch from “grinding the lows” to a “trend reversal.”
You can start to be optimistic now, but it’s still not time to lose patience and chase the rally.$BTC #美国7月零售销售下降0.6% #BTC
BTC is currently around $63,000. The price is still grinding through the lows, but a few mid-term signals are starting to change.
First, both the BTC daily and weekly RSI previously showed bullish divergence—price made new lows, but momentum didn’t weaken in the same way—suggesting the marginal downside power from the bears is fading. At the same time, volatility continues to compress. This kind of environment often means the market is accumulating energy to choose its next direction.
Second, derivatives have clearly cooled off. As of Aug 15, the BTC perpetual funding rate is around 0.0085%, far from a crowded long position, indicating that earlier high-leverage speculation has been partially flushed out.
On-chain structure also hasn’t shown full capitulation. Glassnode data shows that as of Aug 14, about 54.5% of BTC supply belongs to long-term holders who are currently in profit.
Macro conditions are also starting to improve at the margin: July CPI rose only +0.1% month over month, +3.4% year over year, and core CPI has fallen to 2.5% year over year—pressure for further rate hikes is easing.
But one data point has to cool things off:
In the past week, US BTC spot ETFs were not net inflows of $1.1 billion; instead, they accumulated net outflows of about $385 million.
So my view is:
Technicals are bottoming out, leverage is being cleared, and the macro picture is improving—but institutional flows have not yet finished confirming.
The truly strong signal isn’t guessing whether $60,000 is the bottom; it’s waiting for:
BTC to break a key resistance level + ETF net inflows to resume consecutively + a healthy rebound in open interest (OI).
Once all three conditions resonate together, the market may be able to truly switch from “grinding the lows” to a “trend reversal.”
You can start to be optimistic now, but it’s still not time to lose patience and chase the rally.$BTC #美国7月零售销售下降0.6% #BTC