August 9, Cathie Wood: Bitcoin and stablecoins are likely to be the two biggest beneficiaries of the smart-agent business transformation. “Wood Lady” Cathie Wood believes that the latest employment report may look concerning on the surface, but the reality is not as bad as it seems. What truly matters is the economic shift behind the employment data. Currently, the U.S. federal budget deficit as a share of GDP is 5.6%. She believes this level is similar to the early 1980s under Reaganomics; if productivity and technology adoption continue to accelerate in line with ARK’s expectations, the ratio could come close to 5% by year-end. The bigger risk in the future may not be inflation, but deflation—especially for companies that fail to adopt AI and productivity tools.
In oil, an oversupply is taking shape. After the UAE exited OPEC in May, its production rose to a historical high. Cathie Wood believes oil prices could fall significantly and views this as a deflationary driver for most regions of the world. At the same time, capital expenditures have already broken out of the range seen over the past 30 years. She believes market concerns about an AI bubble are exaggerated, and that the market is still in the early stage of a technological revolution.
In crypto assets, Cathie Wood says that Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold is stabilizing again, and she believes that both Bitcoin and stablecoins could be the two primary beneficiaries of the smart-agent business transformation.
On August 9, according to CME’s “Fed Watch” data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September is currently 55.6%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 44.4%.
Institutional analysis points out that, after the U.S. CPI is expected to decline 0.4% month-over-month in June, markets generally expect it to rise 0.1% month-over-month in July. Excluding fuel and food, the core CPI is expected to be 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, the smallest year-over-year increase since February. After the release of a weak July nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, slower inflation growth may help ease the Federal Reserve’s internal inflation concerns. Previously, at the July 29 meeting, three officials voted in favor of a rate hike.
The CPI report may show that pressure from energy-related prices has eased. This pressure had surged sharply in the months following the end of February, when the U.S. went to war with Iran. In early July, retail gasoline prices fell to their lowest level in nearly four months, then rebounded by the end of the month to above $4 per gallon. The report may also show that airfares have declined as jet fuel costs move toward stabilization.
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Microsoft is short on computing capacity—Musk makes up for it? SemiAnalysis: SpaceX may add over 10GW of capacity in 2027; ARR could reach $300 billion
SpaceX is transitioning to become a provider of ultra-scale computing power at a pace far exceeding market expectations. A recent report from research firm SemiAnalysis says SpaceX could add more than 10GW of computing capacity by the end of 2027, potentially unlocking up to $300 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR), with Microsoft becoming its largest customer. Previously, at SpaceX’s first earnings call, Musk announced the company’s “conservative” goal for 2027: to build and deliver 6 to 8GW of incremental compute capacity in a single year, with upside potentially exceeding 10GW. Based on a capital expenditure of $50 billion per GW, this implies 2027 capex could reach between $300 billion and $500 billion—on par with expected investment levels from AWS and Google. For a company whose profitability still lags far behind mainstream hyperscale cloud providers, this is a figure that has shocked the market.
🚨 Crypto regulation is back in the spotlight — and the market is watching closely.
The CLARITY Act’s Senate voting process has been delayed again, but that doesn’t mean the story is over.
For the crypto market, what’s truly worth watching isn’t “when the vote happens,” but which direction the U.S. regulatory framework will ultimately move toward.🏛️
If the regulatory environment becomes even clearer, institutional capital entering the crypto market could gain confidence; however, before the final outcome is finalized, market sentiment may still swing back and forth, and short-term volatility is something to watch closely.
📊 Next, I’ll focus on:
🔹 The progress of the CLARITY Act going forward 🔹 Whether BTC can maintain the current market structure 🔹 Whether ETH and major altcoins see rotation of capital 🔹 Whether regulatory news further impacts market sentiment
News is only a catalyst—prices ultimately have to be validated by capital flows and market consensus.
Now the question is👇
🔥 If U.S. crypto regulation becomes clearer, who do you think benefits first: BTC, ETH, or Altcoins?
Drop your answer and the reasons behind it.
Let’s see where market consensus points this time.👀
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🚨 BIG MOVE FOR CRYPTO 🚨 🫵Crypto Regulation Enters a New Era?
The U.S. Senate just advanced a landmark crypto bill before heading into recess — and this could be one of the most important steps for the market in a long time.
Why it matters: • clearer rules for digital assets • better regulatory visibility • more confidence for builders, traders, and institutions
Crypto does not need more noise. It needs clarity.
And if the Clarity Act keeps moving forward, the next phase for crypto could be very different from the last one.
Do you think this is a bullish signal for the market? 👇
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Key Market Events This Week|Big CPI Release Looms, AI Compute Earnings Cluster
On August 10, after last week’s U.S. employment data came in below expectations and boosted market expectations for interest-rate cuts, this week’s market focus will center on the U.S. July inflation data. The outcome will directly influence the Federal Reserve’s subsequent policy direction.
Meanwhile, the semiconductor earnings season is entering its final stretch. Multiple leading companies in the optical module and AI compute sectors are releasing results in a concentrated manner, and are worth close tracking.
This Week’s Key Events at a Glance
Monday
• Bank of Japan releases a summary of opinions from monetary policy meeting committee members for July
• UCloudTech (Yushu Technology) begins its Sci-Tech Innovation Board IPO application: issue price at RMB 150.8 per share; planned issuance of 40.4464 million shares, representing 10% of total shares after issuance; 500 shares per lot; the amount payable per lot is approximately RMB 75,400
Tuesday
• U.S. ADP private employment data (for the week ended July 25)
Wednesday
• After-hours U.S. stocks: Optical module company Lumentum and AI compute leasing leader CoreWeave release earnings and hold a conference call
• U.S. July CPI and core CPI inflation data
• EIA U.S. crude oil inventory data (for the week ended August 7)
Thursday
• After-hours U.S. stocks: Cisco (CSCO) and Coherent report earnings and hold an earnings call
• Initial jobless claims in the U.S. (for the week ended August 8) and July PPI (Producer Price Index)
• Cleveland Fed President Mester and Richmond Fed President Barkin deliver economic remarks in sequence
Friday
• After-hours U.S. stocks: Semiconductor equipment giant Applied Materials (AMAT) holds an earnings conference call
• U.S. July retail sales (month-over-month)
• University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment for August, 1-year inflation expectations, and June business inventories (month-over-month)
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