š” Nonfarm payrolls shock, ETFs keep buying $850 millionāyet BTC is still consolidating around $65,000. Whoās scared?
First thing this morning: check the dataāthere are a few key points:
š„ Nonfarm shock: July nonfarm -23,000 (vs. forecast +85,000), far below expectations ā market worries about further rate hikes ease, and the odds of a September rate cut heat up. Theoretically bullish for risk assets.
š° ETFs canāt stop: yesterday saw another inflow of $101.7 million; over the past 7 days, total inflows reached $854 million (the strongest weekly flow since April). BlackRockās IBIT alone accounts for 81%. Institutions are still quietly accumulating.
š But what about BTC? Right now around $64,900, still below the $65K level and unable to firmly break above it. Just like we discussed yesterday: when ETFs buy a lot, sell pressure also stays thereāso the price canāt get pushed up. The Fear & Greed Index is still in the āFearā zone at 32, and retail hasnāt really joined in.
š Big whales are stockpiling: the number of addresses holding 10,000+ BTC increased by 17 month-over-month, while institutional-grade players are quietly building positions. Long-term capital isnāt panicking.
One-sentence takeaway from my view: institutions are hoarding, retail is fearful, and the price is grinding. This isnāt necessarily badābottoms are often ground out. The real ignition point may be the CPI data on 8/12āthatās the switch for whether this round sees the comeback of buying or a full bull market restart.
My strategy remains unchanged: hold the line at $65K first. A breakout on rising volume is the real signalādonāt rush to chase. What do you thinkāwill the 8/12 CPI be good news or bad news?š
$BTC #ęÆē¹åø #å åÆ蓧åø #market analysis
First thing this morning: check the dataāthere are a few key points:
š„ Nonfarm shock: July nonfarm -23,000 (vs. forecast +85,000), far below expectations ā market worries about further rate hikes ease, and the odds of a September rate cut heat up. Theoretically bullish for risk assets.
š° ETFs canāt stop: yesterday saw another inflow of $101.7 million; over the past 7 days, total inflows reached $854 million (the strongest weekly flow since April). BlackRockās IBIT alone accounts for 81%. Institutions are still quietly accumulating.
š But what about BTC? Right now around $64,900, still below the $65K level and unable to firmly break above it. Just like we discussed yesterday: when ETFs buy a lot, sell pressure also stays thereāso the price canāt get pushed up. The Fear & Greed Index is still in the āFearā zone at 32, and retail hasnāt really joined in.
š Big whales are stockpiling: the number of addresses holding 10,000+ BTC increased by 17 month-over-month, while institutional-grade players are quietly building positions. Long-term capital isnāt panicking.
One-sentence takeaway from my view: institutions are hoarding, retail is fearful, and the price is grinding. This isnāt necessarily badābottoms are often ground out. The real ignition point may be the CPI data on 8/12āthatās the switch for whether this round sees the comeback of buying or a full bull market restart.
My strategy remains unchanged: hold the line at $65K first. A breakout on rising volume is the real signalādonāt rush to chase. What do you thinkāwill the 8/12 CPI be good news or bad news?š
$BTC #ęÆē¹åø #å åÆ蓧åø #market analysis