This needs to talk about the mechanism of BTC. The total amount of BTC is 21 million. Since the creation of BTC (2009).
Every 10 minutes, 1 block is rewarded, and 1 block contains 50 BTC. However, after every 210,000 blocks (approximately 4 years), the number of BTC rewarded per block is halved.
Approximately 2.63 million BTC was mined in the first year. About 10 million BTC was mined in the first 4 years.
Starting from the fourth year, because the reward for each block is 'halved', 1 block only rewards 25 BTC. At this time, only 1.3 million BTC is mined each year.
Then in the second four years, a total of 5.2 million BTC was mined.
According to BTC's rules, nearly 20 million BTC have already been mined today, accounting for about 95% of the total amount of BTC, which is 21 million.
The remaining 1 million BTC will take about 110 years to mine (approximately completed by 2140).
Thus, the supply logic of BTC is that the early supply is large, but the later supply is small.
That's all for now. Next, let's talk about the price of BTC.
When the total amount of the investment target remains unchanged, the rise and fall of prices are only related to the inflow and outflow of funds.
However, the rise and fall of most web3 targets are related to funds and the supply of tokens. BTC is a very typical example.
In the first four years of BTC, the gradual inflow of funds (with demand) and the daily supply of BTC would reach a balance.
However, starting from the fourth year, the supply of BTC suddenly halved, but the incoming funds initially did not change.
Therefore, when funds are greater than supply, the price begins to skyrocket, attracting more speculative funds, further driving up the price and gradually widening the 'mean'.
Thus, until one day there is no more incoming funds, the price stops rising, and there is still a large amount of new BTC 'produced' every day, leading to a crash.
Until it reaches the lowest point away from the mean again. Then gradually return to normal values.
Then wait for the next moment of halving in four years, when the supply will decrease again, and then the price will rise. Another cycle will come.
However, as of today, the daily supply output is too small to have a significant impact on the overall price. The upcoming halving will also not have a significant impact on the price due to reduced output.
Therefore, the previous deep bear market for BTC was due to a large amount of selling pressure every day. But that is no longer the case. Because the current selling pressure is small and can even be ignored.
But now there will not be a massive surge every four years, as the impact of halving the supply has become smaller. Moreover, the market cap is already very high.
After that, BTC will probably fluctuate freely upwards with international situations, the inflation rate of fiat currencies, etc.
At the same time, based on the above reasoning, I personally believe that it is very difficult for ordinary people to have opportunities to change their fate in web3.
It's the kind of opportunity where holding it for a few years will definitely multiply several times or even dozens of times.
However, there are still opportunities in the primary and 1.5-level markets of web3. Because most web3 targets are just air and will go to zero.
But there must always be new things to speculate on. When new things come out, there will always be opportunities to distribute free tokens.
