Directly broke through the 40,000 mark! Leverage players collectively crashed, panic selling screenshots exploded in the circle, many people shouted in the group at dawn, 'Is it time to buy the dip or cut losses?', let's just say this wave of 'nightmare' almost shook people's hearts out!
But as an analyst who has been watching the market for 5 years, I have to say: this wave of crash is really not a trend reversal, it’s purely about the funds being 'squeezed out', and it has nothing to do with the value of the coin!
Knock on the blackboard, the key points are here! The core of this decline is just two words: lack of money. First, the U.S. Treasury issued $163 billion in 10-year bonds, and institutions scrambled for bonds like crazy — you should know that the Treasury's TGA account balance is only $57 billion, which means all the 'liquid money' in the market has been absorbed to buy bonds. Reflecting on the crypto market, the liquidity of Bitcoin on the Coinbase platform was directly cut in half in one hour (plummeting 42%), and without liquidity support, the decline could happen in an instant?
What's worse is the Fed's 'hawkish blow'! Overnight, official Goolsbee directly stated that 'it's too early for rate cuts; inflation hasn't met the target', causing the market to panic instantly — the previously expected rate cut probability dropped from 60% to 18%. This means the opportunity cost of holding coins has increased, and many funds are quickly withdrawing from the crypto market. In just one day, GBTC saw an outflow of 320 million dollars, equivalent to a significant reduction in 'buying funds' in the market, so how could it not drop!
But let's not panic. A crash is never the end; it's just the market 'bloodletting'. I've reviewed nearly 5 years of historical data: after Bitcoin's last 5 single-day drops over 15%, the average rebound within 30 days was 22%, with a rebound probability as high as 80%! In simple terms, this wave is just 'teaching a lesson' to those irrationally chasing highs, leaving opportunities for rational investors.
However, buying the dip really can't be rushed. We need to wait for two clear signals: first, US Treasury yields need to fall below 4.5% (indicating funds are flowing back into the market); second, Bitcoin must stabilize back above 41500 USD (indicating real buying pressure has returned). We also need to follow the rules regarding our positions: leverage should never exceed 3 times, and keep half of the spot position, don't spend all your bullets — what the crypto world lacks is not opportunities, but 'those who are alive to wait for opportunities.'
Lastly, let me say something heartfelt: the core of survival in the crypto world has never been about 'making quick money', but about 'not getting wrecked'. When panic arises, don't follow the crowd blindly. Keep an eye on the flow of funds, this 'faucet', and wait for liquidity to return before taking action. That's better than anything!
Follow me, this old analyst. Before the next market pump, we'll give an early warning. During the crash, I'll teach you how to identify signals, and when to buy the dip, I'll tell you whether to 'go for it or wait'~ How low do you think Bitcoin can fall? 38000 or 35000? Let's chat in the comments, and for those who like it, we can avoid traps and really buy the bottom! I'll update you on market changes as soon as possible. We won't be the 'leeks' that get cut; we'll be the ones following smart money to make a profit~
