Barclays, an international major bank, has just released a significant analysis that directly reveals the Fed's internal discussions about whether to cut interest rates in December — currently, opinions among Fed executives are deeply divided, but the final decision-making power is firmly held by Chairman Powell.

1. An Overview of the Internal Factions at the Federal Reserve

Barclays has divided the voting committee into three factions:

Rate Cut Supporters (5 people): Including Governor Mylan and others, believe that economic data supports easing policies.

Rate Maintenance Faction (6 people): Mainly consisting of regional Fed presidents, concerned about inflation rebound, advocating for a wait-and-see approach.

Swing Voters (4 people): Ambiguous attitude but "more inclined to maintain the status quo."

This means that before Powell's statement, the number of votes to maintain the interest rate (6 votes) is actually slightly higher than the votes for cutting rates (5 votes).

Second, Powell is the most critical variable.

But Barclays pointed out a key point: the threshold for other committee members to publicly oppose Powell is very high. As long as Powell is determined to push for interest rate cuts, it is likely to reverse the situation. In other words, whether there will be an interest rate cut in December is essentially "a decision made by Powell alone."

Third, what does it mean for the cryptocurrency market?

Short-term volatility intensifies: This uncertainty will cause the market to swing back and forth before the December meeting, and the cryptocurrency market will inevitably follow suit.

Pay attention to Powell's recent speeches: Any statement he makes in the next two weeks may be interpreted by the market as a barometer for interest rate cuts.

The expectation of interest rate cuts remains the biggest positive: As long as there is a possibility that Powell leans towards cutting rates, the long-term logic of Bitcoin and Ethereum has not been disrupted.

Lao Li suggests.

Before the December meeting, we need to prepare three things:

Maintain position flexibility, don't heavily bet on direction when it is unclear.

Focus on Powell's public speech this week.

If the market falls due to the expectation of "delayed interest rate cuts", it instead presents a long-term layout opportunity.

The Federal Reserve's decisions will only be delayed, not absent. Being patient for clear signals is more important than blindly chasing highs and lows. Pay attention to Lao Li's trades and check homepage information.