1. BTC still maintains the volatile market

In "The Bitcoin shock caused by the non-agricultural data indicates that the market has no bull market at the beginning, and it is difficult to have a deep bear market. Hongshen and Migou are talking nonsense! The next three months will enter a wide range of monkey market, so hurry up to build a position at this point!" I have analyzed that due to the lack of liquidity, the market is unlikely to have a big bull market in the short term, and it is also difficult to have a deep bear market. The fluctuation range is between 24,800 and 31,800 US dollars.

You may not agree, 7,000 points up and down is called fluctuation?

Yes, don’t compare everything with A-shares. For Bitcoin, within 2 months, if the upward range cannot exceed 50%, it cannot be called a bull market, and if the downward range cannot exceed 30%, it cannot be called a deep bear market.

To be more precise, it is more inclined to the lower half of the range, that is, the central axis of 28,500 US dollars is the dividing line. If it does not stand firmly at 28,500 US dollars, it seems to be high now.

Looking specifically at this round of rebound, the upward trend seems to be relatively weak at present, and from a structural point of view, an M top has been formed, and the high point has a trend of continuing to fall, but the low point is still at the previous low support line of around 27,200 US dollars. It can be determined that in the short term of one week, if there is no data explosion such as CPI, it will still be verified to be effective.

If it falls below $27,200, we will see the previous low.

Then 25,000 US dollars is still the dividing line of this consensus. We will observe closely. If it gets strong support or a false breakthrough again, we will enter long orders. If it completely falls below 25,000, we can usher in the fixed investment season.

2. Will BTC fall below 27,200 or break through 29,000 next?

I have previously speculated that if the price of Bitcoin continues to fall, will it fall below $27,200? I am more inclined to this.

But there is another possibility.

First of all, there has not been any top divergence at the 4-hour level or above.

At the same time, we can draw an upward channel since this rise. Currently, there are three points above and below to verify its validity. If there is another false drop below 27,200 and a collision with the rising trend line, and then the fifth wave rebound is started in sequence, a false breakthrough to around 29,000 US dollars is also possible.

To determine which trend it is, we need to pay close attention to 27,200 and whether the rising channel is held. If it is not held, we can short sell in sequence. If it is held, we can try short-term long with a small position and earn the last wave of this B wave rebound. If there is no retest of the two key support intersections, we will still choose the high altitude near 28,200 US dollars.

Sometimes the market is like a fog, and it is difficult to see everything clearly. You need to keep moving forward to lift the veil bit by bit.

3. Ethereum and other altcoins may usher in a plummeting season

The ETH/BTC exchange rate is currently 0.057, close to the low of 0.049 since the bear market. It has not held the 0.06 that was tested many times before. So there is still a lot of room for it to go down. After all, there is no strong support in the middle. If there is no strong rebound to break through 0.06 this week, then it will go down to 0.045-0.049. Then it will be a great opportunity to short Ethereum and altcoins.

In addition, the BTC dominance index is also close to its previous high since March 2021, reaching 51.22%. In the time cycle, it seems that many times on the timeline, BTC is near the stage high, and then a round of decline will start.

Before a decline, there is usually a plunge in altcoins. Will history repeat itself?

Another feature is that in 2019, the Bitcoin Dominance Index approached its highest point since the start of the bear market, and then six months later, it entered the beginning of the bull market. So does this indicate the end of the second round of capital accumulation by the market makers?

4. Will the lowering of interest rate expectations lead to a rise in US stocks? Will it also boost BTC?

Expectations for rate hikes lowered again

It has fallen from 27% last week to 13.6% now. It is very likely that there will be no more interest rate hikes in November, which is good for the US stock market. Although Wall Street showed little interest in digital currencies in October, if the US stock market rises as expected after November, there will still be a spillover effect on Bitcoin.

5. Will the black swan of the Middle East war have a big impact?

In a word, not much. Even if the United States increases its aid, it will not have much impact on the PCE core data. It is even less likely that oil prices will soar like the Fourth Middle East War, which will affect the progress of fighting inflation.

After all, the Arab countries were united at that time, but now the Arab world has its own considerations and concerns. Countries like Iran, Lebanon and Afghanistan alone cannot cause much waves.

I just hope that both sides will reduce the terrorist atrocities against civilians, especially the hateful Hamas, and I hope there will be world peace.