strchitsrecordlow

I think this is the most underdiscussed angle from yesterday's meeting, and I want to lay it out clearly because once you see it, the timing of the Fed's hawkish shift starts to look a little odd. Quinn Thompson, chief investment officer at Lekker Capital, made a point publicly that I think deserves real attention. Oil has fallen approximately thirty percent since the Fed's March dot plot, with Brent crude now sitting back near its levels from before the US-Iran conflict began escalating earlier this year. For months, rising oil prices tied to that conflict were one of the primary drivers pushing inflation higher and giving the Fed cover to stay cautious about cutting. Now that exact driver is receding fast, and the committee chose this specific moment to pivot toward a more hawkish stance instead of acknowledging the disinflationary pressure already building from energy markets. Thompson's framing is that this looks a little like fighting the last war, reacting to a threat that's already fading rather than the actual conditions on the ground today. I don't think this means the Fed made a mistake exactly, central banks often move cautiously and prefer to see sustained evidence before changing course, but it does create a genuinely interesting tension heading into tomorrow. The formal US-Iran peace signing is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland, and if oil keeps falling in the aftermath of that signing, it could start pulling headline inflation down in a way that actively undercuts the hawkish case the Fed just built. If that happens, the next several CPI prints become a lot more interesting than they would have been otherwise, because they'll either validate Warsh's caution or expose it as premature within a matter of weeks.#STRCHitsRecordLow #GoldHoldsLoss #FedDotPlotHalfFOMCMembersProjectRateHike $BTC
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