#in Community Insights & Market Sentiment

$IN 24 hours, it fell 43%—from a high of 0.0535 to 0.0284—with futures trading volume around $106 million. It looks like yesterday’s chasing-the-rally crowd has already been shaken out. But Binance futures open interest is still stuck at 126 million tokens right now—before the short squeeze kicked off at 11 p.m. last night, it was only about 47.8 million. After the drop, open interest is actually even higher than it was near yesterday afternoon’s local peak.

Yesterday at noon, I wrote about this candle: the price was at 0.042, and I said this was where FOMO longs would learn their lesson. Unless open interest fell back below 80 million and the share of long accounts eased to 65%, 0.050 was out of reach. If the 1-hour candle lost the 0.037 EMA12, the first target was 0.033. After that, the price plunged through both 0.037 and 0.033, so that call was right. Today, the question is whether open interest unwound after the drop—and the answer is no. At 7 this morning, open interest was about 115 million tokens. The 8 a.m. hourly candle plunged straight from 0.033 to 0.0288, wiping out the platform that had remained from yesterday afternoon in one go. During the few hours the price has spent grinding between 0.028 and 0.030, open interest has instead climbed to 126 million.

Retail long accounts have eased only from 75.7% near the peak to 68.5%, while large traders’ long positions, measured by position size, remain stuck at 53.8% and have barely moved. The funding rate settled at -1.58% at midnight, and was still -0.51% at noon; shorts are continuing to pay. The 1-hour RSI has dropped to 39.9, the KDJ J-line to 14.7, and the current price is right on the lower Bollinger Band and lower Keltner Channel, both near 0.0284. The EMA12 is still overhead at 0.0309 and hasn’t been reclaimed, while hourly ATR is still 8.3%—volatility has hardly cooled at all.

The mechanism is simple: the FOMO positions built up yesterday are still underwater, and people are adding at the lows. A near-halving in price looks like a flush-out, but the open-interest structure says the crowd hasn’t really left.

I’m treating the 0.0284 lower band as a temporary floor, not a flush-out. Until open interest first falls below 90 million tokens and the share of long accounts drops back under 60%, any bounce is likely to run into the EMA12 at 0.0309. While the funding rate is still around negative half a percent, I’m staying out on both sides here. These are my personal views.

#IN #合约数据 #OpenInterest

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