Honestly, I haven’t seen any incremental capital coming in. Instead, the reduction is very real. I’ve been watching a chart like $CAP for almost two weeks, and the more I look, the more it feels like a slow boil—like boiling a frog in warm water. Over half a month, the open position size shrank by nearly half, yet the price is still being held up stubbornly at a high level. No matter which cycle we’re in, this kind of structure is not a good sign. I’ve been waiting for a validation signal: either a breakout on rising volume that crushes the short thesis, or a large on-chain anomaly that directly breaks through support. Now it looks like the latter probability is clearly building up. Think about it—if positions have dropped so much, it means the longs are quietly withdrawing. But the price hasn’t collapsed. That in itself is a fragile equilibrium.
The longer this equilibrium holds, the more violent the selling pressure will be when it finally breaks. From what I feel on the order book: the spot side’s selling pressure has been consistently pressing down. On the futures side, the longs don’t dare add positions either. It’s basically existing capital fighting with itself. In this situation, I won’t bet on a rebound—the risk-reward ratio just isn’t worth it. Instead, you should think: if one day the chain suddenly gets dumped by a few thousand coins, will the futures market instantly trigger a cascade? With such thin liquidity, once a big bearish candle drops, the stop-loss orders will all crowd into the same price level.
My own judgment is that shorting from this position is more comfortable than going long. It’s not that it’s going to drop right away—but the downside space and probability are clearly more favorable. Of course, if the price suddenly rallies back on high volume, that means I’m wrong and I’ll admit it. But until then, I choose to stand on the side that validates the bearish logic.
Gazing at the vastness of mountains and seas, observing the market’s subtlety.
With Uncle Xiong, ride along and witness gains and losses across heaven and earth.
#CAP
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