bitcoin

#bitcoin #Altcoin $BTC $BNB
According to analysts, the current quantile of Bitcoin is at 28.4. Historically, the market has traded above these levels 71.6% of the time. Simply put, BTC is currently valued below its usual range and is trading about 25% below the long-term trend. This does not mean an automatic reversal, but indicates a state of relative 'discount' by historical standards.

Investor Grant Cardone recently asked a simple yet provocative question in 'X'. Imagine you were gifted $100,000, but with the condition: all the money must be invested either in bitcoin, gold, or silver and not touched until the end of 2028. What would you choose?
The poll results were expected, yet still impressive: 69% voted for bitcoin. Gold and silver together only garnered 31%. Even the staunch crypto critic Peter Schiff, trying to contest this result, conducted his own poll — and bitcoin won again with 60.6%.

📉The last hours in the crypto market have been hot: $BTC sharply fell below the psychological mark of $90,000, touching the level of $88,000. What is behind this movement and should we panic?
Main reasons for the decline:
Trade wars and geopolitics. A new wave of claims about aggressive import tariffs (up to 100%) and trade confrontation between the US and China is putting pressure on all risky assets. Investors are fleeing to the 'safe haven' — the dollar and gold.

Bitcoin’s network fundamentals are flashing a signal that long-term investors have learned to respect. Bitcoin hashrate has fallen by roughly 4% in the month leading up to December 15, marking the sharpest decline since the April 2024 halving. According to analysts at VanEck, this development may actually be constructively bullish for Bitcoin over the coming months.
Historically, periods of miner capitulation—when less efficient miners are forced to shut down operations—have often acted as contrarian buy signals, preceding strong price recoveries rather than prolonged weakness.
Miner Capitulation and Future Returns: What the Data Shows
In a mid-December research note, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, alongside senior investment analyst Patrick Bush, highlighted a compelling long-term pattern.
Looking back to 2014, VanEck’s analysis shows that:
Bitcoin posted positive 90-day returns in 65% of cases when hashrate declined over the prior 30 days
By contrast, when hashrate was rising, positive 90-day returns occurred only 54% of the time
The signal becomes even stronger over longer horizons:
During periods when 90-day hashrate growth was negative, Bitcoin delivered positive 180-day returns in 77% of instances
The average gain reached 72%, significantly outperforming periods of positive hashrate growth, which saw gains only 61% of the time
This data suggests that declining hashrate is not a sign of network weakness, but rather a cyclical cleansing process that often sets the stage for stronger price performance.
Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Relief for Miners
While falling hashrate reflects stress in the mining sector, it can ultimately benefit surviving miners. Rising prices following capitulation phases tend to:
Expand profit margins
Restore viability to machines that were previously unprofitable
Reduce selling pressure from distressed miners
Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $88,000, down nearly 30% from its all-time high of $126,080 set on October 6. This drawdown has intensified cost pressures across the mining industry.
VanEck notes that the breakeven electricity cost for the Bitmain S19 XP, one of the most widely used mining rigs introduced in 2022, has dropped by nearly 36%—from $0.12 per kWh in December 2024 to roughly $0.077 per kWh by mid-December 2025. This sharp decline reflects increasingly harsh operating conditions and thinning margins.
Why Hashrate Is Falling: Power, Geography, and AI
VanEck attributes the recent 4% hashrate decline—the steepest since April 2024—largely to the shutdown of approximately 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity in China. Much of this electricity is believed to be redirected toward the rapidly expanding AI and data center sector.
According to VanEck’s estimates, competition from AI workloads could ultimately reduce Bitcoin’s total hashrate by up to 10%, as energy providers prioritize higher-margin compute demand over mining.
Global Support for Bitcoin Mining Is Still Growing
Despite regional shutdowns, Bitcoin mining is far from retreating globally. Sigel and Bush estimate that at least 13 countries are now actively supporting or backing Bitcoin mining in some form. These include:
Russia, France, Bhutan, Iran, El Salvador, the UAE, Oman, Ethiopia, Argentina, Kenya—and most recently, Japan.
This geographic diversification reduces systemic risk and reinforces Bitcoin’s long-term resilience as a decentralized network.
The Bigger Picture
Hashrate declines tend to feel uncomfortable in real time, especially when paired with price corrections. But history suggests that these moments often represent late-stage stress, not structural failure.
If past cycles are any guide, today’s miner capitulation could quietly be laying the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next major upside phase, even as sentiment remains cautious.
👉 Follow for deeper on-chain insights, macro-driven Bitcoin analysis, and data-backed market signals—before they show up in price.
#bitcoin #BTC