Is the forecast of BTC dropping to 64,000 USD at risk of breaking the system?
#MicroStrategy is it going bankrupt?
The likelihood of BTC dropping to 64k USD
Kalshi currently shows a probability of 4.27% (very low).
This is the most pessimistic scenario (bear case), usually occurring if the Fed is strongly hawkish, a prolonged government shutdown, or a sudden tightening of global liquidity.
Is MicroStrategy going bankrupt?
It's not easy to go bankrupt.
They hold 712,647
$BTC (average price ~76,037 USD).
If BTC drops to 64k → unrealized loss of about 8.6 billion USD.
But:
Most of the capital was purchased with convertible notes (convertible debt), not margin loans with liquidation.
There is no margin call forcing sales.
Saylor has clearly stated: “We are not selling Bitcoin” – they can hold through the bear market (as they did in 2022).
Systemic risk
It will not completely break the crypto system (because there is no central clearing house like banks).
But it can cause:
Strong liquidation cascade on perpetual (billions of USD being swept).
Large ETF outflows.
Widespread panic selling → BTC may test another 70k–75k before bottoming out.
Practical conclusion:
The probability of dropping to 64k is very low (4.27%). If it happens, the Strategy will incur large losses but it is difficult to go bankrupt. The crypto system will shake strongly but will not collapse. This remains an extreme scenario.
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