TRX surged 10% in the opposite direction the early morning Binance was hacked—so why was it down almost as much as BTC a day and a half later?
First, the data (Binance spot TRX, 1-hour candles, Beijing time):
1. According to Binance’s official incident update, the hot wallet was compromised at around 04:05 on 10/30. The 04:00 candle opened at $0.3315;
2. Over the next two or three hours, TRX rose instead of falling. The 06:00 candle hit a high of $0.3654, up about 10.2%;
3. Trading volumes for the 05:00 and 06:00 candles were about $29.5 million and $37.9 million, respectively. The previous evening, they were only around $500,000 per hour;
4. After that, the price steadily retreated, and today it has been hovering below $0.32.
As of around 21:29 Beijing time today, TRX was at about $0.3184—down about 12.9% from its $0.3654 high, and about 4.0% below the open of the hour when the wallet was compromised. Over the same period, BTC fell from $80,848.64 to around $77,488, a decline of about 4.2%.
Put simply: that rally completely retraced, and then some. After going in a big circle, it ended up falling almost exactly as much as the broader market.
Why did it surge during those few hours? I couldn’t find an official explanation to confirm the reason, so I won’t attribute it to anything or speculate about who was buying. Fast up, fast down—the candlestick chart tells the story plainly this time.
Did you see that spike in the early hours that day?
$TRX $BTC
First, the data (Binance spot TRX, 1-hour candles, Beijing time):
1. According to Binance’s official incident update, the hot wallet was compromised at around 04:05 on 10/30. The 04:00 candle opened at $0.3315;
2. Over the next two or three hours, TRX rose instead of falling. The 06:00 candle hit a high of $0.3654, up about 10.2%;
3. Trading volumes for the 05:00 and 06:00 candles were about $29.5 million and $37.9 million, respectively. The previous evening, they were only around $500,000 per hour;
4. After that, the price steadily retreated, and today it has been hovering below $0.32.
As of around 21:29 Beijing time today, TRX was at about $0.3184—down about 12.9% from its $0.3654 high, and about 4.0% below the open of the hour when the wallet was compromised. Over the same period, BTC fell from $80,848.64 to around $77,488, a decline of about 4.2%.
Put simply: that rally completely retraced, and then some. After going in a big circle, it ended up falling almost exactly as much as the broader market.
Why did it surge during those few hours? I couldn’t find an official explanation to confirm the reason, so I won’t attribute it to anything or speculate about who was buying. Fast up, fast down—the candlestick chart tells the story plainly this time.
Did you see that spike in the early hours that day?
$TRX $BTC
