PlanB has come out again to announce that “a new bull market has been born.”
His evidence boils down to one thing: BTC closed the monthly candle at 77,430, and the monthly RSI has stayed above 50 for the third month in a row. The post got 60,000 views and over 1,100 likes.
Let me be blunt.
The price is still about 39% below last year's high of 126,198, and October alone was down 7.3%. He calls this a birth certificate for a bull market. An RSI above 50 basically just means “the drop hasn't been brutal enough yet.” Treating that as a bull-market signal is like saying, “The patient still has a fever, so they're almost recovered.”
Even more interesting, someone in the comments called him out: “This is completely different from what you said before.” His reply was: the white line goes up, the white line goes down; hacks, forks, pandemics, bans, and macro conditions are all just noise. Like clockwork.
Come on, man. If it goes up, it's the cycle; if it goes down, it's noise. A claim like that can never be wrong, which means it says nothing at all. The old hands still remember how S2F got debunked back in the day.
To be fair, the day before he did share something useful: the 50-week moving average and the 155-day realized price are both around 75k. I'll give him that. That's only a little over 3% from the current price.
So forget all the “new bull market has been born” talk and just keep your eye on 75k. If it holds, he'll say he told you so; if it breaks, he'll say it's noise. But your position doesn't have a “noise” option.
#BTC #PlanB