“Coins launched on StonkFun are 29.7 times more likely than Pump.fun coins to reach a $100K market cap.” This chart has been making the rounds for two days, and the more I look at it, the more it feels like an ad.
The original data was posted by @MrketInsider on October 31: StonkFun has launched 197,664 coins in total, 75 of which currently have a market cap above $100K—that’s 0.037%. Pump.fun has launched about 24.4 million, with 312 above that mark—0.0012%. Divide one by the other and you get 29.7 times. Big, all-caps JUST IN, over 40,000 views and more than 1,000 likes.
First, the metric. This counts coins that are “still alive now,” not coins that “ever made it.” Pump.fun’s denominator is 123 times larger, and it includes the whole graveyard accumulated over more than two years. Many coins on a new platform haven’t had time to die yet, so of course its survival rate looks better. @scrips_ pointed this out in the replies ages ago. Nobody cared.
Then there’s the numerator. Pump’s figure is 312 in one place, 365 in another, and the X news summary says 538. Three versions, yet the conclusion is precise to one decimal place.
Most importantly: one survivor in every 2,600 versus one in every 78,000 makes no difference to you. They’re both lottery tickets. One just happens to be a cheaper ticket, dressed up as a “fairer launchpad.”
Platforms fighting for traffic and using retail traders’ body counts as marketing material—that’s what this chart is really about.
#meme #PumpFun