i have Bad theory for $BTC and you should read it.
Bitcoin has not yet reached its Realized Price. For those unfamiliar with the term, Bitcoin’s Realized Price represents the average cost basis of all circulating BTC.
Historically, a decline below the Realized Price has indicated a significant capitulation event, compelling the majority of holders to exit their positions.
This pattern has occurred in four out of four previous instances, resulting in an almost 100% accuracy rate. It appears the market bottom has not yet been established, and a downturn resembling "Rektober" is anticipated.
The current price increase appears to resemble a short squeeze, a movement intended to capture attention, attract liquidity, and reinvigorate bullish sentiment within the cryptocurrency sector.
Shorting $ETH here makes sense to me for a quick scalp.
ETH has pushed toward the $2,450 area and is now showing signs of a correction.
For me, $2,450 is a major resistance zone. If ETH wants to break through it convincingly on the first attempt, it would likely need another strong leg higher.
After such a significant move already, I don’t see that as the highest-probability scenario right now.
That said, I’m not calling a major top. This is simply a short-term scalp setup based on the current resistance and price action.
If the setup invalidates, I’ll exit. No stubborn trades.
⚠️ If BTC pushes toward $80K, I’ll manually close the trade and cut the position.
BTC is already approaching an extreme resistance zone, and nothing moves in a straight line forever. I’m expecting a potential pullback from these levels, which is why I’m taking this short-term risk.
This is the $BNB chart I shared with you on August 17. Now look where we are. 👀
My $620–$630 target has been hit, and BNB is now trading above $675.
If you think I’m just sharing random charts like everyone else, you’re probably going to miss the bigger picture.
On August 17, $BTC was still showing bearish sentiment, yet I shared a bullish BNB setup because the chart structure and technicals were giving me a different signal.
And here we are.
I hope those who followed the setup with proper risk management managed to capture some good profits.
The chart doesn’t care about the noise. Learn to read it.
LFG. 🚀
Crypto PM
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Bullish
What an impressive and clean uptrend on $BNB 🔥
I’m still looking for further upside here, as both the chart structure and technicals remain bullish.
$BNB is trading within a clear rising channel, and as long as that structure holds, the trend remains in favor of the bulls.
The biggest factor to watch is BTC. We need sustainable price action from Bitcoin throughout the week. If BTC suddenly reverses and starts dumping, the party across many altcoins could end very quickly.
For now, a long setup on $BNB makes sense to me, with an initial profit target around $620–$630.
But don’t ignore the downside:
$590 is an important channel support level.
If that support breaks, the setup needs to be reassessed.
Trade the structure, not the excitement. Manage your risk accordingly.
That $75K $BTC short you’re holding is becoming another source of fuel for the upside.
If I’m reading the structure correctly, this breakout has a clear path toward $80K.
Market sentiment can flip with just one candle. That’s why fighting the trend can be extremely dangerous - either adapt to the market or risk getting left behind.
We still have four months left in the year, and the bigger question remains:
Is the bottom already in, or is this rally simply a liquidity hunt toward the upside?
The truth is, neither you nor I can know that with certainty. Trying to perfectly predict the bottom is an edge retail traders simply don’t have.
So accept the uncertainty and trade accordingly.
Use a proper Stop Loss, position sizing, and risk management. The crypto market is highly sophisticated, and liquidity-driven moves can happen much faster than most retail traders expect.
If retail traders struggle to consistently outperform traditional markets, expecting to perfectly time crypto bottoms and tops is even more unrealistic.
Don’t try to predict everything. Manage what you can control.
My previous $BTW analysis turned out to be almost spot on.
Now the question is: where does it go from here?
When $BTW was trading around $0.70, I shared a short setup with a clear position-sizing and risk-management strategy.
If you followed that setup with disciplined risk management, congratulations - you would be sitting on significant gains by now, even with relatively low leverage.
Our initial target was $0.25, and as you can see on the chart, price has come very close to that level.
So, what’s next?
If you’re still holding the short, keep a close eye on the $0.66 area. If the market makers decide to squeeze late shorts and trigger liquidity above that level, we could see another sharp move.
Otherwise, the #BTW pump appears to be losing steam for now.
Don’t get greedy after a winning trade. Protect the profits and let the market confirm the next move.
Crypto PM
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Bearish
Okay bros, a lot of you have been asking about a potential $BTW short.
Here’s the strategy I’m considering. This is an example setup, not financial advice.
Let’s assume you want to use only 2x leverage and have a total risk capital of $1,000.
Instead of entering the entire position at once, you could consider scaling in:
• Initial short: $0.70 with $250 • If $BTW gets another squeeze toward $0.90, add another $250 • Keep the remaining $500 in reserve rather than deploying everything immediately.
The idea is to keep enough capital available to manage volatility instead of entering a full-size short at one price.
If the bearish setup plays out, $0.25 would be the area I’d watch as a potential target.
But remember: a coin that has already made a massive move can remain irrational for longer than you expect.
Don’t assume the dump is guaranteed, and never use leverage or position sizes that could put your account at serious risk.
$TAO remains one of the fundamentally strongest projects in the market, and I have a lot of respect for the team building it.
From a technical perspective, the weekly chart is showing a potential breakout structure, and if that setup plays out, the price action could get very interesting.
$TAO is currently trading around the $210 area, and based on my trade setup, my first target is around $374.
I’m not saying it will happen overnight, but if the breakout confirms and momentum follows through, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some serious fireworks in TAO.
As always, wait for confirmation and manage your risk.
A whale started trading on Hyperliquid last October and managed to secure over $40,000,000 in just seven months with 23 consecutive wins. At that point, the smartest move would have been to walk away, but they kept trading.
They opened a massive $90,000,000 short on $ETH and after yesterday's pump, they were completely wiped out.
Their account balance dropped to just $35.47, resulting in a $24,000,000 loss from a single trade.
This serves as a stark reminder that knowing when to leave the "casino" is even more important than making big money.
If you don't take profits, you’ll eventually end up giving everything back.
Okay bros, a lot of you have been asking about a potential $BTW short.
Here’s the strategy I’m considering. This is an example setup, not financial advice.
Let’s assume you want to use only 2x leverage and have a total risk capital of $1,000.
Instead of entering the entire position at once, you could consider scaling in:
• Initial short: $0.70 with $250 • If $BTW gets another squeeze toward $0.90, add another $250 • Keep the remaining $500 in reserve rather than deploying everything immediately.
The idea is to keep enough capital available to manage volatility instead of entering a full-size short at one price.
If the bearish setup plays out, $0.25 would be the area I’d watch as a potential target.
But remember: a coin that has already made a massive move can remain irrational for longer than you expect.
Don’t assume the dump is guaranteed, and never use leverage or position sizes that could put your account at serious risk.
Okay bros, so now it’s $BTW . Same game, different coin. 👀
BTW has already pumped nearly 8x in just 15 days, and some of you are still trying to short it.
Don’t do that unless you have a clear invalidation or a confirmed floor. Shorting a coin purely because it has already pumped hard is a great way to get liquidated.
I checked some of the tokenomics, and there are monthly token unlocks coming from ecosystem and community allocations. Team tokens are reportedly locked until March 2027.
But the part that concerns me the most:
97.34% of the supply is reportedly held by the top 10 wallets.
That level of concentration creates serious volatility and liquidity risk.
I’m done with this one. Let’s see how this game ends.