加密Anson
71 Posts
加密Anson
Square Verified3年推特博主/一级市场调研，擅长NFT/Gamefi/Defi领域
2021年后ETH信仰者，长期持有ETH
所有分享仅代表个人观点，不作任何投资建议
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If Bitcoin has cycles, then October 5 is the start of the bear-to-bull shift!
When you study the cycles of Bitcoin (BTC), you’ll find a pattern:
In the rising phase: 1064 days; in the falling phase: 364 days
Late 2015 → late 2017: 1064 days
Late 2017 → late 2018: 364 days
Late 2018 → late 2021: 1064 days
Late 2021 → late 2022: 364 days
Late 2022 → late 2025: 1064 days
Late 2025 → late 2026: 364 days
If this script plays out, then October 5, 2026 will be the start of the bear-to-bull shift!
Some people always imagine this time will be different;
but cycles still, coldly, carry out the plan!
When you study the cycles of Bitcoin (BTC), you’ll find a pattern:
In the rising phase: 1064 days; in the falling phase: 364 days
Late 2015 → late 2017: 1064 days
Late 2017 → late 2018: 364 days
Late 2018 → late 2021: 1064 days
Late 2021 → late 2022: 364 days
Late 2022 → late 2025: 1064 days
Late 2025 → late 2026: 364 days
If this script plays out, then October 5, 2026 will be the start of the bear-to-bull shift!
Some people always imagine this time will be different;
but cycles still, coldly, carry out the plan!
In the crypto world, people:千万别乱去碰美股!
There’s an unwritten logic in the crypto world:
When even OTC retail “greenhorns” start FOMO-ing in, the bull market is already over!
How does this translate to the U.S. stock market—why do crypto folks swarm in like that?
Or is it that they’ve never been “weed” in the U.S. stock market and just want to try it out!
There’s an unwritten logic in the crypto world:
When even OTC retail “greenhorns” start FOMO-ing in, the bull market is already over!
How does this translate to the U.S. stock market—why do crypto folks swarm in like that?
Or is it that they’ve never been “weed” in the U.S. stock market and just want to try it out!
I’m “more successful” than Elon Musk!
Brothers, the US stock market crashed, I lost 3,000, and Musk lost 88 billion. Look, I lost so much less than Musk. So I’m more successful than Musk.
Brothers, the US stock market crashed, I lost 3,000, and Musk lost 88 billion. Look, I lost so much less than Musk. So I’m more successful than Musk.
The way post-00s people [shear/comb] wool is brutal!
Every week has a Black Friday, every month has a “Red July”!
In the blood-soaked July, heroes from all walks of life suffered humiliating defeats!
In the blood-soaked July, heroes from all walks of life suffered humiliating defeats!
#布伦特原油跌约6%
Brent Crude Suddenly Plunges—What Does It Mean?
When oil prices crash, everyone worries about two things above all: Can gas get cheaper? And will their wallets shrink?
This single-day drop of nearly 6% in crude oil is mainly due to the easing of geopolitical tensions, which has squeezed out the “war premium,” along with growing concerns that the global economy is slowing and oil demand is weakening.
So what does this mean for us in practical terms?
Car owners: Good news—domestic refined fuel price adjustments are closely linked to international crude oil. This sharp drop suggests that the next price adjustment window is very likely to bring a noticeable price cut. If you don’t urgently need to drive, you can wait until the adjustment is implemented before filling up.
Investment impact: Oil and gas funds may face short-term pressure on their net asset values. Investors who chase higher prices should be alert to pullbacks. But for major fuel users such as airlines and logistics companies, lower costs can actually be a positive.
Should you go bargain-hunting?
Crude oil is often called the “king of commodities.” In the early stages of a crash, price swings are extremely large, and blindly buying the dip is high-risk. It’s recommended that everyone stays on the sidelines and watches closely to see whether OPEC+ will take action to support prices.
Brent Crude Suddenly Plunges—What Does It Mean?
When oil prices crash, everyone worries about two things above all: Can gas get cheaper? And will their wallets shrink?
This single-day drop of nearly 6% in crude oil is mainly due to the easing of geopolitical tensions, which has squeezed out the “war premium,” along with growing concerns that the global economy is slowing and oil demand is weakening.
So what does this mean for us in practical terms?
Car owners: Good news—domestic refined fuel price adjustments are closely linked to international crude oil. This sharp drop suggests that the next price adjustment window is very likely to bring a noticeable price cut. If you don’t urgently need to drive, you can wait until the adjustment is implemented before filling up.
Investment impact: Oil and gas funds may face short-term pressure on their net asset values. Investors who chase higher prices should be alert to pullbacks. But for major fuel users such as airlines and logistics companies, lower costs can actually be a positive.
Should you go bargain-hunting?
Crude oil is often called the “king of commodities.” In the early stages of a crash, price swings are extremely large, and blindly buying the dip is high-risk. It’s recommended that everyone stays on the sidelines and watches closely to see whether OPEC+ will take action to support prices.
#黄金价格上涨
The hardline diplomatic style of US President Trump, “not playing by the rules,” has made wars and conflicts difficult to escalate decisively, yet also difficult to end completely, resulting in a protracted standoff. As a result, crude oil has become a high-volatility geopolitical bargaining chip, while gold—thanks to its dual attributes of hedging against “policy uncertainty” and supporting “de-dollarization”—has built a highly resilient long-term upward foundation.
The hardline diplomatic style of US President Trump, “not playing by the rules,” has made wars and conflicts difficult to escalate decisively, yet also difficult to end completely, resulting in a protracted standoff. As a result, crude oil has become a high-volatility geopolitical bargaining chip, while gold—thanks to its dual attributes of hedging against “policy uncertainty” and supporting “de-dollarization”—has built a highly resilient long-term upward foundation.
Verified
#长鑫存储上市首日涨472%
The A-share market is about to change! LONGi Technology hit its peak upon listing!
The market capitalization at listing reached 3.51 trillion yuan, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to become No. 1 in A-shares.
The issue price was 8.66 yuan; the stock opened at 49.50 yuan, a surge of +471.59%.
The trading value on the first day also exceeded 110 billion yuan, beating the 90 billion yuan record set by Oriental Fortune in October 2024, and setting a new record for the highest single-day trading value of an individual stock in A-shares.
The A-share market is about to change! LONGi Technology hit its peak upon listing!
The market capitalization at listing reached 3.51 trillion yuan, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to become No. 1 in A-shares.
The issue price was 8.66 yuan; the stock opened at 49.50 yuan, a surge of +471.59%.
The trading value on the first day also exceeded 110 billion yuan, beating the 90 billion yuan record set by Oriental Fortune in October 2024, and setting a new record for the highest single-day trading value of an individual stock in A-shares.
Verified
The A-share market is about to change! Longsys Technology’s IPO will overturn everything!
Longsys Technology’s listing market value reached 3.51 trillion yuan, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to become the #1 company by market value in the A-share market.
The offering price was 8.66 yuan; it opened at 49.50 yuan, up +471.59%.
One lot is 500 shares, with a profit of 20,420 yuan.
In addition, the trading value on the first day exceeded 110 billion yuan, surpassing the 900 billion yuan record set by Eastmoney in October 2024, and setting a new record for the highest single-day trading value for an individual stock in the A-share market.
Longsys Technology’s listing market value reached 3.51 trillion yuan, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to become the #1 company by market value in the A-share market.
The offering price was 8.66 yuan; it opened at 49.50 yuan, up +471.59%.
One lot is 500 shares, with a profit of 20,420 yuan.
In addition, the trading value on the first day exceeded 110 billion yuan, surpassing the 900 billion yuan record set by Eastmoney in October 2024, and setting a new record for the highest single-day trading value for an individual stock in the A-share market.
#全球央行权衡油价逼近百美元
What the hell! Oil prices have surged by nearly a hundred dollars—has the world started falling apart again?
When facing oil price fluctuations, we need to objectively examine the multiple factors behind them:
Supply and demand interplay: Uncertainty in the situation in the Middle East and major oil-producing regions increases the premium, while demand elasticity driven by parts of the economy’s recovery further tightens the balance between supply and demand.
Inflation transmission effects: As the “mother of industry,” rising crude oil prices directly raise transportation and chemical industry costs, indirectly intensifying price pressure on the consumer end, posing challenges for central banks’ rate-cut decisions and inflation control.
Market self-adjustment mechanisms: High oil prices suppress some non-essential demand, while also stimulating the release of production capacity in non-OPEC oil-producing countries and the pace of new-energy substitution. In the medium term, the market still has the ability to self-balance.
Overall, large short-term swings in oil prices put global economic recovery to the test, but the resilience of the macroeconomy and the transition and adjustment of the energy structure are also key variables that will determine future trends.
What the hell! Oil prices have surged by nearly a hundred dollars—has the world started falling apart again?
When facing oil price fluctuations, we need to objectively examine the multiple factors behind them:
Supply and demand interplay: Uncertainty in the situation in the Middle East and major oil-producing regions increases the premium, while demand elasticity driven by parts of the economy’s recovery further tightens the balance between supply and demand.
Inflation transmission effects: As the “mother of industry,” rising crude oil prices directly raise transportation and chemical industry costs, indirectly intensifying price pressure on the consumer end, posing challenges for central banks’ rate-cut decisions and inflation control.
Market self-adjustment mechanisms: High oil prices suppress some non-essential demand, while also stimulating the release of production capacity in non-OPEC oil-producing countries and the pace of new-energy substitution. In the medium term, the market still has the ability to self-balance.
Overall, large short-term swings in oil prices put global economic recovery to the test, but the resilience of the macroeconomy and the transition and adjustment of the energy structure are also key variables that will determine future trends.
Partly True
#bitmart将于2027年停止运营
Once there was BitMEX, and now Bitmart has announced it will stop operations
No wonder the exchange tokens had a waterfall the day before...
The situation for small exchanges is really not optimistic!!!
Once there was BitMEX, and now Bitmart has announced it will stop operations
No wonder the exchange tokens had a waterfall the day before...
The situation for small exchanges is really not optimistic!!!
#shib上涨36%
$SHIB Market cap surges by roughly $1 billion in a single day, with most buy orders coming from exchanges in South Korea
SHIB records a strong 36% jump in the short term, and the fund flows show heavy concentration of strong buy orders in the South Korean market—this is a typical liquidity squeeze driven by the “Kimchi Premium.”
Impact on the broader market going forward:
Sentiment indicators and local top signals: Large-scale “FOMO-style” chasing by retail investors in South Korea often happens in the later stages of a rally, when sentiment is overheated. This kind of purely emotion-driven surge fueled by retail buying from a single region usually lacks support from fundamentals and on-chain cash flows, making it prone to triggering a chain liquidation of leveraged longs when profit-takers start selling off;
Sector effects: In the near term, it may pull in follow-the-leader rotations from other Meme sectors. However, after the Kimchi Premium rate cools down or arbitrage capital arrives, be alert to the risk of a rapid mean reversion when prices are at elevated levels.
$SHIB Market cap surges by roughly $1 billion in a single day, with most buy orders coming from exchanges in South Korea
SHIB records a strong 36% jump in the short term, and the fund flows show heavy concentration of strong buy orders in the South Korean market—this is a typical liquidity squeeze driven by the “Kimchi Premium.”
Impact on the broader market going forward:
Sentiment indicators and local top signals: Large-scale “FOMO-style” chasing by retail investors in South Korea often happens in the later stages of a rally, when sentiment is overheated. This kind of purely emotion-driven surge fueled by retail buying from a single region usually lacks support from fundamentals and on-chain cash flows, making it prone to triggering a chain liquidation of leveraged longs when profit-takers start selling off;
Sector effects: In the near term, it may pull in follow-the-leader rotations from other Meme sectors. However, after the Kimchi Premium rate cools down or arbitrage capital arrives, be alert to the risk of a rapid mean reversion when prices are at elevated levels.
#sk海力士adr转换额度2.5%已用尽
The ADR (American Depositary Receipt) conversion quota for SK hynix has reached the statutory or procedural limit of 2.5% and is now exhausted. On a micro level, this reflects the level of international capital allocation demand for assets of leading semiconductor companies; on a macro level, it reveals the frictional micro-structure behind cross-border capital flows.
In terms of market impact, limited ADR conversions may, in the short term, raise the scarcity premium for US-listed ADRs. However, if the premium becomes too high, it could also push some chase-buyers’ capital out of the field and into peer companies in the same competitive lane, such as Samsung Electronics. Whether future policy measures and the depository bank will expand the program will be a key indicator for whether the price spread converges.
The ADR (American Depositary Receipt) conversion quota for SK hynix has reached the statutory or procedural limit of 2.5% and is now exhausted. On a micro level, this reflects the level of international capital allocation demand for assets of leading semiconductor companies; on a macro level, it reveals the frictional micro-structure behind cross-border capital flows.
In terms of market impact, limited ADR conversions may, in the short term, raise the scarcity premium for US-listed ADRs. However, if the premium becomes too high, it could also push some chase-buyers’ capital out of the field and into peer companies in the same competitive lane, such as Samsung Electronics. Whether future policy measures and the depository bank will expand the program will be a key indicator for whether the price spread converges.
If in 2026 you didn’t invest recklessly, you would have already beaten 90% of people!
#富途牛牛正式上线BNB即时交易服务
Futu Niu Niu is also Hong Kong’s first licensed broker to offer BNB order book trading pairs, providing investors with transparent, real-time trading data.
Starting from today, eligible investors in Hong Kong can trade instantly under the compliant framework, including $BNB
Futu Niu Niu is also Hong Kong’s first licensed broker to offer BNB order book trading pairs, providing investors with transparent, real-time trading data.
Starting from today, eligible investors in Hong Kong can trade instantly under the compliant framework, including $BNB
#美联储9月加息概率升至约82%
The market pricing is pushing the probability of a rate hike in September to above 80%. This is not an overreaction to any single economic data point, but a re-anchoring to the “risk of second-round inflation” and the upward shift in the neutral interest rate.
From the perspective of monetary policy transmission, what the market had widely priced—“precautionary rate cuts” or a “long pause”—has already been contradicted by reality. When service-sector inflation shows persistence and supply-side constraints have not been fully eased, the central bank is no longer facing a simple issue of an economic soft landing. Instead, it faces the risk of inflation expectations losing their anchor. An 82% probability of a hike essentially means funds are betting that the U.S. Federal Reserve will revert to a reaction function prioritizing “tightening.”
For asset pricing, this abrupt adjustment in expectations has far-reaching implications:
Increased bifurcation: A rapid rise in the front end of the yield curve will directly lift the marginal cost of financing across society. Discount-rate pressure will further squeeze the upside elasticity of overvalued assets;
Back to fundamentals: The market is being forced to switch from “valuation expansion” to a “cash-flow validation” mode.
This does not necessarily mean a recession is imminent. Rather, with policy space constrained, capital markets are undergoing a one-time, forced adaptation to the normalization of high interest rates (Higher for Longer).
The market pricing is pushing the probability of a rate hike in September to above 80%. This is not an overreaction to any single economic data point, but a re-anchoring to the “risk of second-round inflation” and the upward shift in the neutral interest rate.
From the perspective of monetary policy transmission, what the market had widely priced—“precautionary rate cuts” or a “long pause”—has already been contradicted by reality. When service-sector inflation shows persistence and supply-side constraints have not been fully eased, the central bank is no longer facing a simple issue of an economic soft landing. Instead, it faces the risk of inflation expectations losing their anchor. An 82% probability of a hike essentially means funds are betting that the U.S. Federal Reserve will revert to a reaction function prioritizing “tightening.”
For asset pricing, this abrupt adjustment in expectations has far-reaching implications:
Increased bifurcation: A rapid rise in the front end of the yield curve will directly lift the marginal cost of financing across society. Discount-rate pressure will further squeeze the upside elasticity of overvalued assets;
Back to fundamentals: The market is being forced to switch from “valuation expansion” to a “cash-flow validation” mode.
This does not necessarily mean a recession is imminent. Rather, with policy space constrained, capital markets are undergoing a one-time, forced adaptation to the normalization of high interest rates (Higher for Longer).
#全球科技股延续抛售
The recent market fluctuations are, at their core, capital re-pricing the “AI narrative.”
The tech bull run of the past two years was built on extremely optimistic discounted cash flow (DCF) assumptions about the future. But the macro reality is: the timing of rate cuts keeps getting pushed back, and the cost of capital is no longer cheap. At the same time, the tech giants’ surge in capital expenditures (CapEx) has outpaced the rollout of commercialization on the end-user application side, creating a temporary mismatch in timing.
When the return on investment (ROI) can’t be realized in the short-term financial statements, and lofty valuations lack solid support, market sentiment naturally shifts from the past “FOMO (fear of missing out)” to a more stringent scrutiny of the balance sheet.
This isn’t the endpoint of technological evolution—it’s the “water being squeezed out” phase of the typical technology maturity curve (Hype Cycle).
Separating truth from hype may not be a bad thing. While a wave of sell-offs is certainly hard to endure, it will flush out the tail-end bubbles, forcing companies to move away from indiscriminate “burn-money sprinting” toward a more rational contest of “efficiency and profitability.” Businesses that truly have a commercial moat and the ability to generate cash flow are often the ones that emerge through this kind of squeeze.
The recent market fluctuations are, at their core, capital re-pricing the “AI narrative.”
The tech bull run of the past two years was built on extremely optimistic discounted cash flow (DCF) assumptions about the future. But the macro reality is: the timing of rate cuts keeps getting pushed back, and the cost of capital is no longer cheap. At the same time, the tech giants’ surge in capital expenditures (CapEx) has outpaced the rollout of commercialization on the end-user application side, creating a temporary mismatch in timing.
When the return on investment (ROI) can’t be realized in the short-term financial statements, and lofty valuations lack solid support, market sentiment naturally shifts from the past “FOMO (fear of missing out)” to a more stringent scrutiny of the balance sheet.
This isn’t the endpoint of technological evolution—it’s the “water being squeezed out” phase of the typical technology maturity curve (Hype Cycle).
Separating truth from hype may not be a bad thing. While a wave of sell-offs is certainly hard to endure, it will flush out the tail-end bubbles, forcing companies to move away from indiscriminate “burn-money sprinting” toward a more rational contest of “efficiency and profitability.” Businesses that truly have a commercial moat and the ability to generate cash flow are often the ones that emerge through this kind of squeeze.
#原油突破100美元
Brent has finally crossed the $100 mark!!!
Geopolitical intensity hasn’t let up, and the inventory buffer has been completely drained. This latest one-two punch of “geopolitics + supply” has shattered the macro market’s hopes for rate cuts.
This isn’t just a break of a psychological level—it’s a second round of tightening against macro liquidity:
Hard landing for inflation: The CPI energy component has fully surged, and by month-end the policy room for PCE and the FOMC has been completely shut. “Higher for Longer” has turned into “Higher for Even Longer.”
Liquidity drain: Discount rates have jumped violently, and valuation multiples for tech stocks and Crypto are now facing brutal deleveraging tests.
For every extra day oil stays above $100, liquidity for risk assets bleeds out another day
Brent has finally crossed the $100 mark!!!
Geopolitical intensity hasn’t let up, and the inventory buffer has been completely drained. This latest one-two punch of “geopolitics + supply” has shattered the macro market’s hopes for rate cuts.
This isn’t just a break of a psychological level—it’s a second round of tightening against macro liquidity:
Hard landing for inflation: The CPI energy component has fully surged, and by month-end the policy room for PCE and the FOMC has been completely shut. “Higher for Longer” has turned into “Higher for Even Longer.”
Liquidity drain: Discount rates have jumped violently, and valuation multiples for tech stocks and Crypto are now facing brutal deleveraging tests.
For every extra day oil stays above $100, liquidity for risk assets bleeds out another day
#AFX Cross-Chain Bridge Stolen 24.15 Million USDC
A triple play in one night—hackers are back to疯狂 “open the ATM.”
On July 23, the Arbitrum cross-chain bridge of Perp DEX AFX Trade was directly drained of 24.15 million USDC, which was then laundered into 12,467 ETH for a smooth escape. B² Network lost 8.59 million tokens and is even posting on-chain messages playing “refund 10% and call you a white hat.”
Balance Coin fared even worse: an oracle pricing manipulation vulnerability was directly written into abnormal BTC pricing, triggering a self-perpetuating liquidation loop—and the token value was wiped to zero.
But the most unsettling part isn’t the on-chain code flaws. It’s the off-chain physical output—CertiK data shows that “wrench attacks” publicly verified in the first half of 2026 have reached 52 cases, with losses year-over-year surging by nearly 12x.
Code is law; physics is a dimensionality-reduction attack.
In today’s Web3 security landscape, it’s no longer just about competing on audit reports—defending against on-chain oracle manipulation and cross-chain vulnerabilities, and defending off-chain privacy leakage and “physical prompting.”
In this cycle of bull-and-bear alternation, with criminal activities running rampant, keeping private-key compliance isolated and personal information properly desensitized matters far more than you doing a few extra rounds of high-premium LP.
A triple play in one night—hackers are back to疯狂 “open the ATM.”
On July 23, the Arbitrum cross-chain bridge of Perp DEX AFX Trade was directly drained of 24.15 million USDC, which was then laundered into 12,467 ETH for a smooth escape. B² Network lost 8.59 million tokens and is even posting on-chain messages playing “refund 10% and call you a white hat.”
Balance Coin fared even worse: an oracle pricing manipulation vulnerability was directly written into abnormal BTC pricing, triggering a self-perpetuating liquidation loop—and the token value was wiped to zero.
But the most unsettling part isn’t the on-chain code flaws. It’s the off-chain physical output—CertiK data shows that “wrench attacks” publicly verified in the first half of 2026 have reached 52 cases, with losses year-over-year surging by nearly 12x.
Code is law; physics is a dimensionality-reduction attack.
In today’s Web3 security landscape, it’s no longer just about competing on audit reports—defending against on-chain oracle manipulation and cross-chain vulnerabilities, and defending off-chain privacy leakage and “physical prompting.”
In this cycle of bull-and-bear alternation, with criminal activities running rampant, keeping private-key compliance isolated and personal information properly desensitized matters far more than you doing a few extra rounds of high-premium LP.
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