BTC is now around 62,700, grinding right near the lowest point of the past few days. Yesterday, 64,000 couldn’t hold, and it slid all the way down—just one step away from the 7-day low at 62,555. I’m not in a hurry to act at this level; I’ll wait for it to show its direction first.
On the bears’ side, the pressure is real and solid. The 4-hour and daily charts are still pressing downward. The MACD is deeply positioned below the signal line; the moving averages have a dead cross set up. Price can’t even climb back above the 15-minute MA50 (63,088). Even on the futures side, it’s honest: active buy orders make up only 38%, while sell orders are holding down the buys.
But at this point in the drop, selling pressure is clearly being released. Open interest has fallen by more than one percentage point in a day, and the 4-hour chart directly gives it a "exhaustion" rating—meaning the bears don’t have much remaining conviction to keep pushing. The spot market has started seeing buyers step in: over the past three hours, there were net inflows from large orders across 12 consecutive red candles turning all red; whale accounts show a long/short ratio of 2.2, which is long-biased in the long run. Sentiment is also supported by institutional positives—news like Norway’s sovereign fund and Israeli banks entering the market has come out.
The contradiction is right here: the technical picture hasn’t turned, yet buy demand at the low level is accumulating. Another hidden risk, though—leverage borrowings have surged nearly tenfold within 12 hours. The spot leverage long/short ratio is 31.6, and there’s a pile of leveraged long positions sitting under the price. With this kind of structure, the price is especially sensitive to the direction it chooses.
So now it’s all about the support at 62,555. If it holds, and combined with the spot inflows, there’s a chance for this area to grind into a bottom. If it breaks, that pile of leveraged longs will amplify the downside. Chasing longs isn’t necessary, and trying to short also isn’t something to dare into—just wait until the market chooses a direction.
#btc $BTC
On the bears’ side, the pressure is real and solid. The 4-hour and daily charts are still pressing downward. The MACD is deeply positioned below the signal line; the moving averages have a dead cross set up. Price can’t even climb back above the 15-minute MA50 (63,088). Even on the futures side, it’s honest: active buy orders make up only 38%, while sell orders are holding down the buys.
But at this point in the drop, selling pressure is clearly being released. Open interest has fallen by more than one percentage point in a day, and the 4-hour chart directly gives it a "exhaustion" rating—meaning the bears don’t have much remaining conviction to keep pushing. The spot market has started seeing buyers step in: over the past three hours, there were net inflows from large orders across 12 consecutive red candles turning all red; whale accounts show a long/short ratio of 2.2, which is long-biased in the long run. Sentiment is also supported by institutional positives—news like Norway’s sovereign fund and Israeli banks entering the market has come out.
The contradiction is right here: the technical picture hasn’t turned, yet buy demand at the low level is accumulating. Another hidden risk, though—leverage borrowings have surged nearly tenfold within 12 hours. The spot leverage long/short ratio is 31.6, and there’s a pile of leveraged long positions sitting under the price. With this kind of structure, the price is especially sensitive to the direction it chooses.
So now it’s all about the support at 62,555. If it holds, and combined with the spot inflows, there’s a chance for this area to grind into a bottom. If it breaks, that pile of leveraged longs will amplify the downside. Chasing longs isn’t necessary, and trying to short also isn’t something to dare into—just wait until the market chooses a direction.
#btc $BTC