What is the market telling you when a single candlestick pierces the lower band and still doesn’t close?
Just now, this 4-hour candlestick was quite interesting.
It opened at 65100, hovering near the upper Bollinger Band around 65300, and then immediately crashed through the mid-band 64900 and smashed through the lower band 64500, with the low going as far as 64160. It closed at 64200. In one candlestick, the price went straight from above the upper band to below the lower band, and the close didn’t reclaim back.
This isn’t a wick. It’s a real body breaking through.
The statistical implication of the lower Bollinger Band is: the probability of price moving within ±2 standard deviations is about 95%. Breaking below the lower band is already a low-probability event, but opening near the upper band and then crashing through the lower band without reclaiming indicates that in these 4 hours, the bears had absolute domination.
The significance of this candlestick:
First, the short-term bullish structure is broken. The mid-band at 64900 has turned from support into resistance. Even if there’s a rebound, it will likely be capped around the mid-band.
Second, this is not a shakeout. A shakeout means piercing through the lower band and then quickly closing back, leaving a long lower shadow. Today, it closed with a real body below the lower band, showing that selling pressure is continuous. This isn’t a needle—it’s a hammer.
Third, the short-term direction is already clear—downward. The next support is at 63500-63800; below that, it’s around the prior lows.
Recently, many major KOLs have turned collectively bullish: “57,000 is the bottom,” “the bear market is over,” “the early phase of a bull market is here”—they’ve been shouting it loudly.
I don’t believe it.
The five-year cycle and the four-year halving—this pattern has been running for over a decade. It won’t become invalid just because an ETF gets approved. It won’t become invalid just because miners pivot to AI. And it won’t become invalid just because everyone wants it to go up.
In a full bear market, there will always be a final bottom where everyone feels so desperate that they end up silent. When it was 57,000, what did you see? Some people were bottom-fishing, some were calling for a bull return, and some were analyzing ETF inflows recovering.
Near the real major bottom, there’s none of that noise. Only silence, only numbness, only, “I’m never watching the charts again.”
On strategy:
For short-term sell positions, you can hold them, with a stop-loss set above the mid-band at 64900. The first target is 63500-63800.
For long-term bottom-fishing, don’t rush—it's nowhere near time yet. When everyone thinks, “Bitcoin is done for,” I’ll be the first to tell you to enter.
#比特币ETF周净流入8.53亿美元 $BTC
Just now, this 4-hour candlestick was quite interesting.
It opened at 65100, hovering near the upper Bollinger Band around 65300, and then immediately crashed through the mid-band 64900 and smashed through the lower band 64500, with the low going as far as 64160. It closed at 64200. In one candlestick, the price went straight from above the upper band to below the lower band, and the close didn’t reclaim back.
This isn’t a wick. It’s a real body breaking through.
The statistical implication of the lower Bollinger Band is: the probability of price moving within ±2 standard deviations is about 95%. Breaking below the lower band is already a low-probability event, but opening near the upper band and then crashing through the lower band without reclaiming indicates that in these 4 hours, the bears had absolute domination.
The significance of this candlestick:
First, the short-term bullish structure is broken. The mid-band at 64900 has turned from support into resistance. Even if there’s a rebound, it will likely be capped around the mid-band.
Second, this is not a shakeout. A shakeout means piercing through the lower band and then quickly closing back, leaving a long lower shadow. Today, it closed with a real body below the lower band, showing that selling pressure is continuous. This isn’t a needle—it’s a hammer.
Third, the short-term direction is already clear—downward. The next support is at 63500-63800; below that, it’s around the prior lows.
Recently, many major KOLs have turned collectively bullish: “57,000 is the bottom,” “the bear market is over,” “the early phase of a bull market is here”—they’ve been shouting it loudly.
I don’t believe it.
The five-year cycle and the four-year halving—this pattern has been running for over a decade. It won’t become invalid just because an ETF gets approved. It won’t become invalid just because miners pivot to AI. And it won’t become invalid just because everyone wants it to go up.
In a full bear market, there will always be a final bottom where everyone feels so desperate that they end up silent. When it was 57,000, what did you see? Some people were bottom-fishing, some were calling for a bull return, and some were analyzing ETF inflows recovering.
Near the real major bottom, there’s none of that noise. Only silence, only numbness, only, “I’m never watching the charts again.”
On strategy:
For short-term sell positions, you can hold them, with a stop-loss set above the mid-band at 64900. The first target is 63500-63800.
For long-term bottom-fishing, don’t rush—it's nowhere near time yet. When everyone thinks, “Bitcoin is done for,” I’ll be the first to tell you to enter.
#比特币ETF周净流入8.53亿美元 $BTC