《BTC Bottom-Picking Daily》
【Conclusion】Today isn’t about guessing the bottom. It’s about running a low-risk trial while sticking to the long-term cost band. Today’s status tag: staged entries area. Bottom-picking judgment: you can build a position in small steps. Total score: 79/100. Three pieces of evidence: Price $63,706 is only about 1.4% above the CoinMetrics-implied 200WMA (derived). FNG 28 is “fear,” and funding is +0.0067%/8h—though only OKX can be reached—so the signal is mainly from OKX, not the whole market. MVRV-Z is around 0.36 and Puell is around 0.69; on-chain valuation is still on the cool side. Data confidence: the live price comes from 2 sources with only 0.09% disagreement, but the market snapshot overall is of medium confidence; funding comes from a single source. CoinMetrics derivation delay is 2 days, which is OK for scoring. CVDD and the profit/loss supply are April’s old values and are only for historical reference. One-sentence action: Open a small position first; add again after a pullback into the cost band. Don’t chase if it quickly spikes up.
【Score Breakdown】
Valuation temperature: Price is still near the cost band, so entry qualification exists, but it’s not a deep discount. Current price $63,706; 200WMA about $62,808, roughly 1.4% higher. MVRV-Z about 0.36—valuation isn’t hot. This set scores 34/45. CVDD recent reference $47,470 (2026-04-09); current price is about 34.2% higher. The data is too stale, so it’s not included in the core scoring.
Sentiment and leverage: Fear discount is still there, and the futures side shows a mild positive carry. FNG 28 (fear). Funding +0.0067%/8h; only OKX is available, so OKX leads the signal and doesn’t represent the entire market. This set scores 27/35.
On-chain positioning: Miner revenue pressure is relatively low, so old coin distribution must be down-weighted. Puell about 0.69; supply-profit 49.55%, supply-loss 50.45%. Most recently available date is 2026-04-06, which is over 30 days ago—only historical reference. This set scores 18/20.
【Execution Guidance】
Open first: If you have no core position, use 15%-20% of the planned allocation for the first tranche, prioritizing spot.
Only add on pullbacks: When price retraces to the $62,000-$62,800 cost band, and FNG remains in fear while funding hasn’t clearly risen, add the second tranche.
Wait: After price falls toward $60,000-$61,000, wait for the selloff to stabilize and for on-chain “low temperature” not to worsen, then reassess the third tranche.
Don’t chase: If there’s a fast rally above $66,000, pause adding.
Stop: If it breaks below $60,000 consecutively, stop first. Don’t fully commit just because the price is lower.
【Invalidation Conditions】
1) Price continuously breaks below $60,000, and sentiment/ on-chain metrics show no improvement—treat structure as weakening and stop adding.
2) Price quickly moves into $66,000-$68,000, funding rises noticeably in sync, the discount disappears, and status downgrades to “waiting area.”
3) If CoinMetrics delay exceeds 7 days, down-weight on-chain; if it exceeds 30 days, remove it from scoring.
【Conclusion】Today isn’t about guessing the bottom. It’s about running a low-risk trial while sticking to the long-term cost band. Today’s status tag: staged entries area. Bottom-picking judgment: you can build a position in small steps. Total score: 79/100. Three pieces of evidence: Price $63,706 is only about 1.4% above the CoinMetrics-implied 200WMA (derived). FNG 28 is “fear,” and funding is +0.0067%/8h—though only OKX can be reached—so the signal is mainly from OKX, not the whole market. MVRV-Z is around 0.36 and Puell is around 0.69; on-chain valuation is still on the cool side. Data confidence: the live price comes from 2 sources with only 0.09% disagreement, but the market snapshot overall is of medium confidence; funding comes from a single source. CoinMetrics derivation delay is 2 days, which is OK for scoring. CVDD and the profit/loss supply are April’s old values and are only for historical reference. One-sentence action: Open a small position first; add again after a pullback into the cost band. Don’t chase if it quickly spikes up.
【Score Breakdown】
Valuation temperature: Price is still near the cost band, so entry qualification exists, but it’s not a deep discount. Current price $63,706; 200WMA about $62,808, roughly 1.4% higher. MVRV-Z about 0.36—valuation isn’t hot. This set scores 34/45. CVDD recent reference $47,470 (2026-04-09); current price is about 34.2% higher. The data is too stale, so it’s not included in the core scoring.
Sentiment and leverage: Fear discount is still there, and the futures side shows a mild positive carry. FNG 28 (fear). Funding +0.0067%/8h; only OKX is available, so OKX leads the signal and doesn’t represent the entire market. This set scores 27/35.
On-chain positioning: Miner revenue pressure is relatively low, so old coin distribution must be down-weighted. Puell about 0.69; supply-profit 49.55%, supply-loss 50.45%. Most recently available date is 2026-04-06, which is over 30 days ago—only historical reference. This set scores 18/20.
【Execution Guidance】
Open first: If you have no core position, use 15%-20% of the planned allocation for the first tranche, prioritizing spot.
Only add on pullbacks: When price retraces to the $62,000-$62,800 cost band, and FNG remains in fear while funding hasn’t clearly risen, add the second tranche.
Wait: After price falls toward $60,000-$61,000, wait for the selloff to stabilize and for on-chain “low temperature” not to worsen, then reassess the third tranche.
Don’t chase: If there’s a fast rally above $66,000, pause adding.
Stop: If it breaks below $60,000 consecutively, stop first. Don’t fully commit just because the price is lower.
【Invalidation Conditions】
1) Price continuously breaks below $60,000, and sentiment/ on-chain metrics show no improvement—treat structure as weakening and stop adding.
2) Price quickly moves into $66,000-$68,000, funding rises noticeably in sync, the discount disappears, and status downgrades to “waiting area.”
3) If CoinMetrics delay exceeds 7 days, down-weight on-chain; if it exceeds 30 days, remove it from scoring.