💵 The Fed's balance sheet has shrunk by $3.1 billion in one week!

▪️ Bloomberg:

- The Fed will likely complete balance sheet reduction ( #QT ) by the end of this year.

▪️ Collins, Fed Chairman:

- If the macro data comes out in line with our expectations, then I think it would be appropriate to begin easing the monetary policy in the near future.

▪️ Schmid, Fed Chairman:

- I do not support a Fed rate cut at this time.

- If inflation continues to decline, it will be appropriate to lower the interest rate.

▪️ Goolsbee, Fed Chairman:

- It is necessary to monitor the reaction of the US economy to the Fed's monetary policy.

- If you keep the rate at the current level for too long, problems may arise.

▪️ Donald Trump:

- US presidents should be given the authority to influence interest rate decisions.

📌 Market expectations (#FedRate #FED :

- September 18: 25 bps decline to 5.00-5.25% (almost 50/50% chance of 50 bps decline)

- November 7: a decrease of 50 bp to 4.50-4.75%.

- December 18: a decrease of 25 bp to 4.25-4.50%.

- January 29, 2025: a reduction of 25 bps to 4.00-4.25%.