Last Thursday, I added to my spot BTC position around 78200, roughly 150k U. The logic was simple—at the 4h level, that spot was right at the previous low support. Plus, I have two project teams that need to use BTC for LP pairs for their June TGE, so I decided to scoop some up in advance. As you all saw, it slid all the way down to 75262 today, with an unrealized loss of about 5600 U. Not a lot, but it feels gross.
I mentioned before that a fear and greed index of 30 doesn’t mean it’s the bottom; now it's at 25, Extreme Fear. I still stand by that judgment. Last week, a founder privately told me they originally planned for a mid-June TGE, cliff 6 months, linear 24 months, but seeing this market, they directly negotiated with the market makers to push it to Q3. The market makers were happy to oblige—after all, the commitment period in the MM agreement is charged monthly, so delaying a month means more fees. But the project's treasury is burning through cash, and retail investors are losing their awareness window. This "let’s wait for the market to improve" mentality is something I personally experienced in 2019, and by the time the bull market came, half the team had already dispersed.
My plan for the next 1-2 weeks is pretty specific: if BTC falls below 74300 (near the 4h low of around 60 candles), I’ll scoop up another 200k U in spot, no stop loss, purely to average down my cost basis. But if it rebounds back above 78000, I won’t touch that 150k U position and will hold it along with my 75 BTC core. I’m staying away from ETH for now; there’s news that ETH shorts stacked a ton of short positions around 2000 and are at risk of being squeezed—though squeeze or not, my current position of 950 ETH is already hefty, and I don’t want to add more ETH beta under this fear and greed index.
I’m still holding 12000 BNB; I can’t touch the stuff tied to my launchpad business. To be honest, after that post about a net expenditure of 470k U this month, several colleagues DM’d me saying they’re in worse shape. One guy had prepaid 800k U for market maker commitments, and the project team just ran off without even waiting for the cliff.
That's how this game goes; retail thinks project teams are raking it in, project teams think market makers are cashing in, and market makers think exchanges are killing it. The real money is always in the hands of those who don’t have to vest.
#bth