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$RLC : Back to the breakout starting point—time to revise the outlook

Yesterday afternoon’s rally pushed the price above the watch zone mentioned in my previous post. My view depended on one condition: the pullback had to hold near 0.95. The market has now invalidated that condition.

From 23:00 to 00:00, Binance spot RLC fell nearly 16% in an hour. As of 00:22 Beijing time on October 10, it was trading at 0.8522, below the watch zone. The afternoon’s breakout gains have been given back, so it can no longer be viewed as “consolidation after a breakout.”

The easiest thing to misread here is the 24-hour gain of 13%: that does not mean the recent breakout is still valid. It only compares the current price with the price a day ago, and cannot replace an assessment of the most recent price action.

So I’m withdrawing my view that the breakout remains intact. Even if the price rebounds, we need to see whether it can regain and hold above 0.95–0.9584. If it can’t, that’s just a bounce after the breakdown—not enough to say the trend has recovered based on a single bullish candle.

I haven’t verified any new official explanation for the drop, so I’m only discussing what has already happened on the chart. Source: Binance spot candlesticks and market data, sampled at 00:22. #RLC #MarketAnalysis

The reason for $KAIA ’s sharp surge is clear, but the market has already entered a new phase

This rally didn’t come out of nowhere. Upbit added KAIA/KRW, KAIA/BTC, and KAIA/USDT markets today, with trading starting at 18:30. The timing of the announcement coincided with the first leg of Binance’s KAIA/USDT move, from around 0.038 to 0.068.

But “why did it rise?” and “can you still chase it now?” are two different questions. As of 20:45 Beijing time, Binance was at 0.0546, down 19.7% from the 0.068 high. It had also fallen below the 0.058 warning level flagged in the previous post. The listing news explains the backdrop to the sudden move, but it doesn’t guarantee a follow-through.

Now, 0.058 has shifted from support to the first level the price needs to reclaim. A recovery in trading volume and a move back above that level would signal that selling pressure is easing. If the price continues to be capped on rebounds, the market is still digesting the event-driven premium.

So don’t treat the 24-hour gain of +43% as proof that the breakout is still underway—it only shows how much the price had risen earlier.

Sources: Upbit Data Lab and listing announcement; Binance spot 15-minute candlesticks. #KAIA #MarketAnalysis

$KAIA is up 50%—first, look at that long upper wick

The top gainers list looks impressive, but those who just rushed in may not be making money.

As of 19:25 Beijing time on October 9, KAIA/USDT was trading at 0.0606 on Binance, up 55.8% over 24 hours. But the full hourly candle from 18:00 to 19:00 spiked to a high of 0.0680 and closed at just 0.0594—a 12.6% drop from the high to the close. It even failed to hold the opening price for that hour.

Trading volume is also worth noting: it was about 7.88 million USDT from 16:00 to 17:00, then fell to 6.14 million and 3.78 million over the following two hours. The price kept probing higher while volume shrank in successive hours. This suggests turnover is cooling; it should not be taken as direct evidence of outflows, nor is it enough to conclude that a top is already in.

So, a 50% gain shows how much the price has risen so far—it doesn’t prove that it’s still breaking out. For now, the key level to watch is whether it can reclaim and hold above 0.0680 as volume picks up. If it falls below the previous hour’s low of 0.0580 again, the risk of a rally fading remains.

This analysis covers only this stretch of Binance price action; it does not speculate that the rally was driven by insider information or market makers.
Source: Binance spot 1-hour candlesticks. #KAIA #MarketAnalysis

$MET Trading competition underway: Why did the token price drop 8% in one hour?

As of 17:20 Beijing time on October 9, Binance spot MET/USDT was at 0.4250, down 19.28% over 24 hours. The full hour from 16:00 to 17:00 saw an 8.19% drop, with trading volume about 2.01 times the median of the previous 24 complete hours. The price hit a low of 0.4072.

Binance is currently holding a MET/USDC trading competition, with rankings based on cumulative trading volume. The event may encourage trading and turnover, but that does not mean it generates only buying pressure or provides a price floor. So “there are rewards” should not automatically be interpreted as bullish, nor should the price drop be attributed to the event solely because they coincided.

Watch 0.4072 in the short term: If the price breaks below it on increased volume, weakness may persist. A recovery above this hour’s opening price of 0.4555, accompanied by sustained trading volume, would be needed to indicate that selling pressure has eased.

Sources: Binance spot 1-hour candlesticks; Binance trading competition announcement. #MET #MarketMoves

$RLC Up 16% in an hour, trading volume 12x: Is the breakout confirmed?

As of 15:36 Beijing time on October 9, Binance spot RLC/USDT was at 1.2148, up 58.36% over 24 hours. During the full hour from 14:00 to 15:00, it rose 15.88%, with trading value 11.99 times the median of the previous 24 full hours, and closed at 1.2830—decisively above the 0.9500–0.9584 watch zone noted in the previous post.

This means the previous rebound test has developed into a high-volume breakout. However, the hourly high was 1.4880, and the current price has already fallen about 18% from that peak. Turnover at elevated levels and the risk of chasing the rally have also increased.

The key now is not the 24-hour gain, but whether a pullback can hold near 0.9584: if it holds and consolidates on declining volume, the breakout structure remains intact; if it falls back below that level on rising volume, beware of a false breakout.

No new official announcement from the same day could be verified, so no cause is being asserted. Sources: Binance spot 1-hour candlesticks, iExec and Binance announcement pages.#RLC #MarketMoves

$STRK STRK surged more than 20% in four hours—is trading volume finally catching up?

As of 12:16 Beijing time on October 9, Binance spot STRK/USDT was at 0.06789, up 37.46% in 24 hours. Over the last four complete hours, it gained a cumulative 20.73%, while $BTC rose just 0.82% over the same period. The latest complete hourly candle added another 3.82%, with trading volume reaching 3.54 times the median hourly volume over the previous 24 hours.

More importantly, the relative trading volume over those four hours climbed step by step from about 0.59x to 1.39x, 1.86x, and 3.54x. The conditions cited in the previous post—“hold above 0.060 and keep volume rising”—have now been met, significantly increasing confidence that momentum will continue.

But confirmation doesn’t mean it’s safe to chase the rally without risk: the 24-hour gain is already close to 40%. If volume contracts and the price falls back to around 0.064, that would signal weakening support for the breakout. If it holds on a pullback while volume remains firm, the trend will be healthier.

No official catalyst for the same day has been verified, so we won’t attribute the move to one. Sources: Binance spot 1-hour candlesticks, official announcements page. #STRK #MarketMovers

$RLC Up 10% in an hour—why can’t we confirm a reversal yet?

As of 11:38 Beijing time on October 9, Binance spot RLC/USDT was trading at 0.9160, up 33.12% over 24 hours. The full hour from 10:00 to 11:00 saw a 10.31% gain, with trading volume 2.53 times the median for the previous 24 hours. The intraday high was 0.9500.

This marks a new phase following the earlier “sharp drop on heavy volume”: buying pressure has indeed strengthened, but that hour closed at 0.9362, still below the 0.9584 level where the sharp drop began. The current hour has since pulled back by about 2.15%. So this looks more like a rally awaiting confirmation than a reversal that has already taken hold.

Watch the 0.9500–0.9584 range: a sustained move above it on higher volume would increase confidence in a reversal; another drop below around 0.85 would indicate that this rally has failed. No new official announcement from the same day could be verified, so the volatility is not being attributed to old news.

Sources: Binance spot 1-hour candlesticks, iExec and Binance announcement pages.#RLC #Market Alert

$STRK Up 8% in Two Hours: Breakout or Bull Trap?

As of 10:16 Beijing time on October 9, Binance spot STRK/USDT was trading at 0.06108, up 23.62% over 24 hours. The last two complete hourly periods rose 4.61% and 3.23%, respectively, for a cumulative gain of about 8.01%; over the same period, $BTC was up just 0.27%.

However, this move was not a “high-volume breakout”: trading volume in the latest hour was only 1.39 times the median for the preceding 24 hours. It was stronger than in the prior hour, but not enough on its own to confirm that the trend will continue. A review of publicly available Starknet and Binance announcements also found no official catalyst issued that day that directly explains this rally, so the gains should not be attributed to older news without evidence.

Watch the area around 0.060 next: if the price holds on a pullback and trading volume continues to expand, momentum may persist. If it quickly falls back toward the level where the two-hour move began, this rally is more likely to have been a short-term spike. With the 24-hour gain already substantial, chasing the price carries significant risk.

Source: Binance spot 1-hour candlesticks, official announcement pages.#STRK #MarketMoves

$BCH A one-hour surge in volume leads to a 4.6% drop—are sell pressures accelerating?

As of 08:13 on October 09 (Beijing time), Binance spot BCH/USDT is trading at 273.40, down 8.99% over the past 24 hours. In the most recent complete hour (07:00–08:00), it fell 4.61%, with trading volume around 14.7 times the median of the 24 previous complete hours; over the same period, $BTC was only down 0.17%.

This isn’t a normal “following the market” move: BCH’s hourly drawdown and volume expansion are clearly more pronounced, suggesting a concentrated burst of short-term sell orders and increased turnover. However, a single high-volume bearish candle alone cannot prove that the downtrend must continue.

Next, watch two things: if the rebound occurs on weak volume and it falls below this hour’s low again, the probability that sell pressure persists will rise; only if the bearish candle’s body is swiftly reclaimed and trading volume remains elevated can it indicate stronger absorption.

We have checked publicly available information and found no confirmable safety incidents for BCH projects on the day. CME’s plan to launch BCH futures on October 19 was already disclosed in a September 22 announcement and cannot directly explain this hour’s drop.

Source: Binance spot 1-hour K-line; CME September 22 announcement.#BCH # Market irregularity

$RLC 24 hours still rose nearly 30%, yet within 1 hour it saw a trading-volume surge and fell by more than 8%

As of 04:42 Beijing time on October 09, Binance spot RLC/USDT is trading at 0.8614, up 28.07% over the past 24 hours. However, in the most recent complete hour (03:00–04:00), it fell -8.36%, with trading volume around 7.1 times the median for the previous 24 complete hours.

This is exactly the “time-window illusion” of the “24-hour gainers list”: the leaderboard still shows strength, but that doesn’t mean upward momentum is still intact. A volume-amplified selloff alone can’t prove the trend has already reversed, but it does indicate that disagreement at higher levels is increasing and turnover is clearly rising.

Next, I’ll look at two things: whether the subsequent complete hour can reclaim this bearish candle; and whether trading volume during the rebound can be sustained. If the move ends up being a low-volume dead-cat bounce, the risk of chasing is still high. If price reclaims the area before the sharp selloff and does so with increased volume, then it would indicate that support has strengthened.

I didn’t find any verified daily official announcement sufficient to explain this round of volatility, so here I only discuss the volume-and-price structure and won’t force old “roadmaps” into the explanation as the reason for the rise.

Source: Binance spot 24-hour market data, 1-hour candlestick chart.#RLC #Market anomalies

$OGN 24 hours doubling—why can’t it be taken as a “major market reversal” signal?

As of 02:16 Beijing time on October 09, Binance spot OGN/USDT is trading at 0.04707, up 111.65% over the past 24 hours; over the same period, $BTC is down 2.99%. A sharp surge in one coin occurring alongside weakness in the overall market means you can’t treat the gainers list as evidence of a broad-based recovery.

More worth focusing on is trading volume: in the full hour from 01:00 to 02:00, OGN’s turnover is about 17.5 times the median turnover across the previous 24 complete hours. Trading activity has clearly increased, but higher volume alone can’t distinguish between chasing buys and high-level rotation, nor can it prove the presence of any new positive catalysts.

My observation framework: if it continues to strengthen, we should see whether subsequent full hours can maintain volume-price alignment, and whether there’s still support after any pullback. If it quickly gives back after a volume expansion, then the call that the uptrend will continue needs to be downgraded. To judge the broader market, we need to see whether more leading coins are repairing in tandem.

Don’t equate a single coin doubling with a definite opportunity—first determine whether this is a localized move or a generally warming trend.

Source: Binance spot 24-hour market data, 1-hour candlesticks. #MarketMomentum

Bitcoin Approaches 80,000: Is This a Bargain-Hunting Opportunity or the Start of the Next Round of Declines?

As of 01:35 Beijing time on October 9, Binance spot BTC/USDT is at 80,832.48, down 2.89% over the past 24 hours. ETH is at 2,422.19 (-5.40%), and SOL is at 106.85 (-8.18%). The latter two have fallen significantly more, indicating that risk appetite has weakened.

On the news front: Reuters reported on October 8 that rising oil prices, bond selling, and inflation concerns together are weighing on risk assets. My view: macro pressures can explain some of the selling, but they cannot be taken as proof that there is undisclosed bad news. Nor can the market be declared in collapse based on just one day’s decline.

In the short term, watch BTC around the psychological 80,000 integer level and the 80.4k area near the 24-hour low for signs of support. These are only observation zones, not guaranteed support. If price breaks down and volume increases, the correction may continue. If it regains and holds above 82,000, then watch whether the rebound trading volume can be sustained.

What matters more right now is confirmation between price and volume. A single rebound is not enough to prove a trend reversal.

Source: Binance spot 24-hour market data, Reuters; personal market observation.#BTC #ETH #Crypto Market

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BIGTIME: Impact on target price, valuation range adjusted during the week

In the analysis of BIGTIME on December 4, it was proposed that the price of BIGTIME is accelerating its rise along the yellow trend line, and there is a risk of price falling in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the support of the yellow line. Yesterday, BIGTIME fell as low as 0.5 after 10pm, just reaching the support position of the yellow line. Then it started to rise again and reached a maximum of 0.95 this morning, setting a new high again.
Judging from the current market, BIGTIME was blocked and fell back after rising to 0.95. The blue circle is the range where the price may step back. If the market is strong enough, it may just make a shock adjustment near the current price. After the step back or adjustment is completed, it will continue to rise. Impact target price of $1.
In terms of data, the 1-hour OBV began to rise and cover again after a sharp decline, and bulls continued to enter the market. The 1-hour MACD continuously formed golden crosses, further boosting the market's rise.

The valuation range was adjusted to 0.65-0.95 during the week

operate
If you still have long orders on hand, you can take profits around $1 and do not consider intervening in short orders for the time being.

DOGE: 10% floating profit for long orders, continue to hold

In the analysis of DOGE on November 29, it was proposed that DOGE rebounded strongly after the previous decline and may develop into a reversal trend. DOGE has risen to a maximum of 0.09 today, breaking through the high of November 17, and a reversal trend has been confirmed. The red circle is the position where we open a long position, the cost is below 0.08, and the current floating profit has exceeded 10%.
From the market perspective, DOGE is currently rising along the yellow trend line, so you need to pay attention to the support effect of the yellow trend line after the next price pullback. If it falls below, you need to be alert to the possibility of the end of the rising market.
In terms of data, after the price rose to 0.09, the 1-hour OBV declined, indicating that long funds began to withdraw, but the overall trend is still continuing to rise. The 1-hour MACD is adjusting towards the 0 axis after a dead cross. The market is currently very strong. This short-term adjustment may end soon and continue to attack the target price of 0.095.

The valuation range was adjusted to 0.082-0.095 during the week

operate
You can continue to hold long orders and set a stop loss protection at the cost price.

BIGTIME: Raise target price, be wary of short-term price fall

In BIGTIME's analysis on November 26, it was mentioned that BIGTIME's short-term decline was just a short-term trend, and it recovered the decline in a short period of time. After the adjustment is completed, the upward trend will further continue. During the adjustment process, BIGTIME price continued to step back on the blue upward trend line to gain support, and then started a huge upward trend. Judging from the current market situation, BIGTIME is above the blue line and has started to accelerate its rise along the yellow trend line. The angle of the yellow trend line is extremely steep, and the market may have begun to enter the top mode. At present, we need to pay attention to the support of the yellow trend line. If it falls below, the market will begin to enter a correction.
In terms of data, the 1-hour OBV data began to show signs of decline, indicating that funds have begun to withdraw. The 1-hour MACD energy column begins to fade, which also means that this accelerated rise may have come to an end, and there may be a downward adjustment in the short term, and it will continue to rise after the adjustment.

Medium-term target price adjusted to $1

In the short term, short positions can be opened near 0.66, with a take profit price of 0.55.

MEME: Pay attention to the breakthrough of two key positions

In the analysis of MEME on November 27, it was mentioned that the price of MEME has entered the undervalued range, and small positions can be opened in batches for spot positions. MEME itself has no investment value at all. To put it bluntly, it is listed on Binance and has a certain degree of discussion. MEME's new coin mining in the Binance Launch Pool has ended recently. The chips distributed have also been sold by retail investors. Now it just depends on when it is ready to cause trouble. Combined with the recent on-chain data monitoring that the project party transferred more than 1 billion MEME coins, it is estimated that it is time. After all, the project side also needs to ship goods, and at least it must first stir up the excitement before it has enough liquidity to undertake its sell-off.
From a technical perspective, MEME pulled a wave shortly after being listed on Binance, and then began to fall from a high. The rebound after the decline began to be blocked only at the half point, and the trend was really too weak. A triangle pattern can be drawn based on the trend of MEME after falling from its high level. The current price has almost reached the end of the triangle. The main observation points are the strength of the breakthrough of the upper edge of the triangle pattern, and whether the Fibonacci position of 0.618 ($0.345) above it can stand firm. If the price breaks through $0.345 and stands firm, the target is still optimistic that it will continue to break the previous high.

operate
You can continue to open a spot position at the current price.

ETH: The monthly golden cross has been completed, and the general direction continues to be bullish

Ethereum ended November with a beautiful positive line, which finally confirmed the formation of the golden cross of the monthly MACD, and there are already signs of breaking through the 0 axis. From the perspective of trading volume, the three consecutive positives on the monthly line (not counting this month) are also accompanied by a gradual increase in trading volume, which is a relatively healthy upward trend with volume, which makes the next market more imaginable. Space.

Judging from the trend of small levels, the price has been fluctuating in the range of 1904-2137 for more than 20 days. Within the shock range, the shorter-term market is oscillating upward along the blue line. Since November, ETH has been blocked above $2,100 three times in a row. This is the fourth time it has touched this area. If it is pushed back again, first see whether the support of the blue line continues to be effective. If it falls below the blue line, it means that this If the short-term volatile rising market ends, the price may continue to test support at the lower edge of the volatile range.

Although the 1-hour OBV data is climbing, it still shows a significant decline compared with the previous data. If the short-term price breaks through to a new high for the year, but the OBV fails to keep up, you still need to beware of the possibility of a false breakthrough.
At present, the last hurdle for ETH is the monthly MA30 moving average, with the price at $2,221. Only after it completely reaches this moving average, ETH is expected to open up further room for growth.

operate
Long orders near 2020 2080 have been closed and profits taken;
It is not recommended to continue to hold short orders near 2100;
Place a long order at the limit price of 1900 to see if there is a chance to receive it.

ETH: The short-term trend continues to fluctuate, and the end of the triangle pattern changes direction.

In the analysis of ETH on November 28, it was believed that the ETH market was in a shock adjustment stage at the daily level, and it was given long and short opportunities in the shock market. According to the analysis in the previous article, there is still some floating profit for the long positions established, but ETH only rose to a maximum of around US$2,076 yesterday, and the profit stop we set at 2,080 was not triggered.
At present, ETH has returned to the up and down oscillation mode again, but the range of price fluctuations has become narrower and narrower. A green triangle pattern can be drawn based on the price trend.
The 1-hour OBV data began to continue to decline. This is a bearish pattern, indicating that the positions of long funds are not firm and need to be vigilant. After forming a golden cross, the 1-hour MACD indicator currently shows signs of breaking through the 0 axis. If it completely stands on the 0 axis, it is expected to continue to guide the market upward.
It is expected that the ETH price will choose a direction at the end of the triangle, and the breakthrough of the upper and lower green lines will be the key.

operate
For long orders in hand, you can adjust the stop-loss price according to the position of the green line below. If you are not optimistic about the market outlook, you can adjust the take-profit price according to the green line above. Take profit when the price touches the green line above.

BCH: Go long and watch for trendline breakout

In the analysis of BCH on November 23, it was mentioned that the upward trend of BCH is running around an ascending channel. If the ascending channel is broken, the price may continue to find a new support point. BCH is still within the channel, and has been oscillating sideways for a period of time at the lower edge of the channel. There is a chance for a rebound to boost the market.
There are currently two downward trend lines for BCH. The blue line is a large-level downward trend line starting from the high point in the second half of the year, and the green line is an accelerated downward trend line. The price of BCH needs to break through the green line first, and then test the pressure of the blue line (yellow circle area). When the price breaks through the blue line again, BCH will usher in a new wave of upward trend.

operate
The limit price for long orders is 218, and the stop loss price is 212.