Guys, ETH dropped 4.6% overnight to 2,050. I’m not catching this falling knife yet.
Put simply, this move is a triple whammy: regulatory expectations, ETF outflows, and payrolls. I’m siding with the bears.
Let’s look at the data first.
ETH is currently at 2,129, down 4.64% in 24 hours, with a high of 2,245 and a low of 2,050. Trading volume is $4.8 billion, and the funding rate is -0.0079%—shorts are paying to hold their positions.
BTC is suffering too, at 74,474, down 1.64%, with an overnight low of 73,333. SOL is down 3.33% to 86.33.
Reuters reported Sunday night that BTC fell to 73,708 and ETH to 2,223, both hitting their lowest levels since August. The trigger was a Democratic sweep in the midterms, with markets fearing Congress will tighten regulation.
ETF flows are even more concerning: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $1.28 billion in outflows last week, their biggest weekly outflow since the end of June. ETH ETFs saw $365.3 million in outflows, marking their sixth consecutive week of net outflows.
In the week of November 2–6, around $3.1 billion in positions were liquidated across the crypto market, with longs taking the biggest hit.
The macro picture isn’t helping either: nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000, far above the 65,000 expected; unemployment was 4.1%, and the odds of a December rate hike are priced at nearly 80%.
What the bulls are saying:
Whales have placed BTC buy orders between 70,000 and 75,000, and KOLs are talking about a short-squeeze setup.
Tom Lee has weighed in, saying this is a bull-market pullback, not the start of a bear market.
October CPI comes out tomorrow night at 21:30. The market is focused on the month-over-month figure, with consensus at +0.3%/+0.2%. If monthly inflation comes in at 0.2%, the bears will lose steam.
What the bears are saying:
Regulatory concerns won’t be digested in a day. The outlook for the Clarity Act has darkened, and institutions are getting out first. Six straight weeks of ETF outflows are a clear vote with their feet.
The fallout from the $6 billion Binance hack hasn’t faded yet, and insurers and regulators are scrutinizing crypto companies’ vulnerabilities.
Here’s what I think:
Whale buy orders are just orders; six straight weeks of ETF outflows totaling $365 million are real money. I put more faith in the latter.
At this level, if ETH breaks below 2,050, it could head straight for the 2,000 mark. It’ll take a move back above 2,245 for the bears to admit they’re wrong.
I’m not holding any positions. It feels too late to chase shorts and too early to buy the dip. I’ll wait until after tomorrow night’s CPI report.
Will a move back above 2,245 mean CPI has squeezed the bears, or will a break below 2,050 send ETH sliding toward 2,000? I’m betting on the latter. What about you?
$ETH $BTC $SOL
#以太坊 #MidtermElections
Put simply, this move is a triple whammy: regulatory expectations, ETF outflows, and payrolls. I’m siding with the bears.
Let’s look at the data first.
ETH is currently at 2,129, down 4.64% in 24 hours, with a high of 2,245 and a low of 2,050. Trading volume is $4.8 billion, and the funding rate is -0.0079%—shorts are paying to hold their positions.
BTC is suffering too, at 74,474, down 1.64%, with an overnight low of 73,333. SOL is down 3.33% to 86.33.
Reuters reported Sunday night that BTC fell to 73,708 and ETH to 2,223, both hitting their lowest levels since August. The trigger was a Democratic sweep in the midterms, with markets fearing Congress will tighten regulation.
ETF flows are even more concerning: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $1.28 billion in outflows last week, their biggest weekly outflow since the end of June. ETH ETFs saw $365.3 million in outflows, marking their sixth consecutive week of net outflows.
In the week of November 2–6, around $3.1 billion in positions were liquidated across the crypto market, with longs taking the biggest hit.
The macro picture isn’t helping either: nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000, far above the 65,000 expected; unemployment was 4.1%, and the odds of a December rate hike are priced at nearly 80%.
What the bulls are saying:
Whales have placed BTC buy orders between 70,000 and 75,000, and KOLs are talking about a short-squeeze setup.
Tom Lee has weighed in, saying this is a bull-market pullback, not the start of a bear market.
October CPI comes out tomorrow night at 21:30. The market is focused on the month-over-month figure, with consensus at +0.3%/+0.2%. If monthly inflation comes in at 0.2%, the bears will lose steam.
What the bears are saying:
Regulatory concerns won’t be digested in a day. The outlook for the Clarity Act has darkened, and institutions are getting out first. Six straight weeks of ETF outflows are a clear vote with their feet.
The fallout from the $6 billion Binance hack hasn’t faded yet, and insurers and regulators are scrutinizing crypto companies’ vulnerabilities.
Here’s what I think:
Whale buy orders are just orders; six straight weeks of ETF outflows totaling $365 million are real money. I put more faith in the latter.
At this level, if ETH breaks below 2,050, it could head straight for the 2,000 mark. It’ll take a move back above 2,245 for the bears to admit they’re wrong.
I’m not holding any positions. It feels too late to chase shorts and too early to buy the dip. I’ll wait until after tomorrow night’s CPI report.
Will a move back above 2,245 mean CPI has squeezed the bears, or will a break below 2,050 send ETH sliding toward 2,000? I’m betting on the latter. What about you?
$ETH $BTC $SOL
#以太坊 #MidtermElections
