$Traditional reasoning: Nonfarm payrolls surge ➔ labor shortages ➔ inflation alert still active ➔ Fed rate hikes/maintaining high rates ➔ tightening liquidity ➔ sharp sell-off in risk assets.
This logic seems airtight, but applying it directly to trading can easily lead you into a trap:
First, “bad news” on employment is essentially “good news” for the economy. A stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report indicates a resilient economy that has not entered a recession. “High rates with a soft landing” is far healthier than “a deflationary recession brought on in order to cut rates.”
Second, the liquidity tap for assets is determined not by a single number, but by the interplay between “real interest rates” and “on-chain capital flows.”#非农就业数据推升加息预期