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Big market swings are actually healthy! U.S. stocks, interest rates, and AI: The best way to prevent irrational exuberance is to let the market suffer setbacks from time to time

🔥 The market’s “cold shower” is actually the best reality check

> Key takeaway: The best way to prevent irrational exuberance is to let the market suffer setbacks from time to time. What’s truly dangerous has never been volatility, but everyone being certain that “you can’t fail no matter what you do.”
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Recent swings in U.S. stocks, tech stocks, and the AI sector have sparked widespread discussion. As investors, we need to understand a few key principles:

* Volatility is a healthy preservative
Markets always tend to amplify everything. From the early “SaaS apocalypse” to the recent tech stock correction, setbacks can effectively deflate bubbles fueled by excessive optimism. The most extreme irrational exuberance often stems from the blind confidence that “you can make money buying anything with your eyes closed.”

* AI’s next stop: the power bottleneck
We are currently in the early stages of the AI business cycle (roughly equivalent to the third inning of a baseball game), and demand for infrastructure remains strong. But the ultimate questions remain unanswered: Where will the real profits come from? Who will have the last laugh? In addition, data centers will need to grow by three to ten times in the future, making power supply the real bottleneck.

* Macroeconomic interest rates and inflation expectations
Inflationary pressures remain, and interest rates are unlikely to fall much below current levels. The Federal Reserve’s job is not to protect anyone from making mistakes. In fact, tighter macroeconomic policy objectively helps cool the market and bring it back to rationality.

💡 Investment takeaway:
What often gets you into trouble isn’t what you don’t know, but what you “are sure you know, but are actually completely wrong about.” In a volatile market, staying humble and thinking independently will help you go further.
#币安美股投资策略与实盘交易
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【JPMorgan’s major scenario analysis: 4 US election outcomes and their potential impact on US stocks and crypto markets】
As voting in the US midterm elections gets underway, Wall Street heavyweight JPMorgan has released its latest scenario forecasts for the balance of power in Congress. The analysis shows an “inverse relationship” between short-term market gains and the probability of each outcome:

📊 Four possible balances of power and expected S&P 500 performance:

1️⃣ Democrats sweep both chambers (66% probability): S&P 500 expected to range from -0.25% to +0.50%. Concerns over tighter AI regulation and a pullback in tech stocks may weigh on markets. However, since such measures are unlikely to overcome a presidential veto, JPMorgan recommends buying AI and tech assets on dips.

2️⃣ Divided Congress: Democrats control the House, Republicans the Senate (26% probability): S&P 500 expected to gain +0.5% to +1.0%. Gridlock would reduce the likelihood of major policy changes, while US Treasury yields may ease.

3️⃣ Republican red wave sweep (7% probability): S&P 500 expected to gain +1.0% to +1.25% (the largest rise). The removal of regulatory risks would directly benefit the tech and crypto sectors, though a widening deficit could push US Treasury yields higher.

4️⃣ Reverse split: Republicans control the House, Democrats the Senate (1% probability): S&P 500 expected to gain +0.25% to +0.75%. Budget standoffs could cause short-term volatility.

💡 What crypto investors should watch:
Although a Democratic sweep is the most likely outcome, its boost to US stocks would be relatively limited. By contrast, a “Republican sweep,” with just a 7% probability, would be the most likely to spur risk appetite. For crypto markets, whatever the final outcome, the resolution of political uncertainty could act as a catalyst for improving liquidity across risk assets.

🚀 【Major News】SpaceX Plans to Acquire Boost Mobile! Starlink Accelerates the Buildout of a “Space-to-Ground” Hybrid Network, Taking on U.S. Telecom Giants
Elon Musk’s SpaceX ($SPCX) is in talks with EchoStar ($ECHO) about acquiring its wireless service brand Boost Mobile or gaining access to its network.
If the deal goes through, SpaceX would gain direct access to Boost’s 7.38 million wireless subscribers and established distribution channels, significantly shortening the time needed to build its own network. Following the news, SpaceX shares rose more than 4% intraday and EchoStar gained nearly 2%, while shares of the three major U.S. traditional carriers—AT&T ($T), Verizon ($VZ), and T-Mobile ($TMUS)—all came under pressure.
Core strategy: a “one-two punch” of spectrum, satellites, and ground stations
SpaceX isn’t just building a satellite communications business. Its ultimate goal is to create a hybrid “satellite + ground” mobile network and challenge the three telecom giants in a market with annual revenues of $600 billion:
* Prime spectrum assets: SpaceX recently spent $8 billion to acquire 800 MHz of low-band spectrum, which has strong signal penetration. Combined with the 65 MHz of nationwide spectrum it previously purchased from EchoStar, its spectrum holdings are highly complementary.
* Second-generation Starlink satellites: The FCC has approved deployment of the second-generation Starlink Mobile constellation, with up to 15,000 satellites. Launches are expected to begin in 2027, with commercial service in 2028; the company says performance is expected to improve 100-fold.
* Ground station and terminal rollout: SpaceX is in talks to secure at least 80,000 ground station sites across the U.S. Elon Musk has also proposed adding small radios to residential and commercial Starlink terminals, turning them into cell sites that provide coverage to mobile phones.
Potential challenges and hurdles
* Transfer of network leasing agreements: Boost Mobile currently leases network capacity from AT&T and T-Mobile. Transferring those contracts to SpaceX would require approval from its competitors, making the restructuring process uncertain.
* High operating costs: Building a nationwide network requires substantial CapEx, including subscriber subsidies, ground station construction, and customer service, posing a major test of operational execution.
As Starlink Mobile gradually completes the four pieces of the puzzle—spectrum, satellites, ground infrastructure, and distribution—commercial spaceflight is evolving from a “tool for filling coverage gaps” into a “direct competitor.” The boundaries between low-Earth-orbit satellites and concepts such as RWA/DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure) are also converging rapidly!
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🔥 Overview of next week’s macro and U.S. stock market highlights | Switch to standard time, AI earnings test, and U.S. midterm elections

⏰ Trading hours reminder: North America switches to standard time
Starting November 1, North America switches to standard time. U.S. stock markets will open one hour later, at 22:30 Beijing time; U.S. crude oil, gold, and silver will open at 7:00, and economic data releases will shift back accordingly.

🚨 Key focus 1: U.S. midterm elections (November 3)
* Control of Congress: All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up for election. A “blue wave” could lead to greater regulation of the tech and financial industries, directly affecting Trump’s ability to advance his policies over the next two years.

* AI and industry impact: Data center energy consumption is drawing attention, while state and local elections (such as in Texas) will affect the pace of project approvals; the defense and healthcare sectors may be repriced.

📈 Key focus 2: Major test for tech and AI earnings
* Apple ($AAPL): Reports after Monday’s close—the first earnings report since Ternus took over. Key points to watch include the impact of rising memory prices on gross margins and holiday-season guidance.

* Chipmakers: AMD ($AMD) and Qualcomm ($QCOM) report. After the recent sharp selloff in semiconductors, the market is eager for positive demand signals from the chip sector.

* AI software: Palantir’s ($PLTR) earnings will test whether AI software is translating into commercial results and whether customers are willing to pay.

* Other highlights: McDonald’s, Berkshire Hathaway-B, Uber, ConocoPhillips, and others will also report.
💼 Key focus 3: October nonfarm payrolls and Fed rate-hike expectations
* Nonfarm payrolls (Friday, 21:30): 65,000 new jobs expected (previous: 29,000), with the unemployment rate expected at 4.20%. A stronger-than-expected reading would increase the likelihood of a December rate hike, putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks.

* Leading indicators: Monday and Wednesday’s ISM surveys and Wednesday’s ADP data (75,000 expected) will influence market expectations for nonfarm payrolls ahead of the report.

* Fed officials’ remarks: Six regional Fed presidents, including Logan, Barkin, and Hammack, will speak in quick succession. Hawkish-dovish divisions persist, with a focus on the December rate path and comments on liquidity.

💡 Market volatility is rising. Please manage risk and allocate positions prudently! #BinanceSquare
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GOOG: Google parent Alphabet plunges 13%! But we’re not selling: a beaten-down bargain amid the AI boom? 🚀📉
* Operating profit: nearly $41 billion (+30% year over year), below Wall Street’s estimate of $43 billion.
* Share price: down nearly 13% in a single day to $282.32, more than 30% below its May high of $404.47.
* Market value wiped out: a profit shortfall of just $2 billion instantly erased $560 billion in market value!

The market is gripped by panic, but does this really mean the AI thesis is broken? My view is clear: I’m still bullish!

💡 The key takeaway: the problem isn’t AI—it’s macro pressure on advertising spending

* AI and cloud businesses continue to surge ☁️
* Google Cloud revenue more than doubled year over year this quarter (over 100%), accelerating further from nearly 80% growth in Q2!

* Peer comparison: AWS grew 39% over the same period, while Azure grew 48%. Demand for cloud and AI is extremely strong across the industry.

* The real stumbling block: slowing search and advertising 🎯

* Search ad revenue grew 12% (down from 17%), while YouTube ad revenue grew 9% (down from 13%).

* The main factors are weakening macroeconomic resilience and the short-term “self-cannibalization” effect of AI search. But just as Meta’s Reels initially ate into feed traffic, monetization is only just getting started. The short-term pressure is merely a temporary trough.

🔍 Valuation advantage: arguably the best value among the “Magnificent Seven”

* P/E advantage: Alphabet’s forward 12-month P/E is just 18x (even below the S&P 500’s 19x).

* Compared with Apple: Apple’s current P/E is a whopping 36x! Alphabet trades at a valuation discount of over 50%, the widest gap in nearly five years.

* Potential for a return to fair value: if the discount narrows to its historical norm (25%), the share price could rebound to around $400, implying nearly 50% upside.

💭 Negative free cash flow? Don’t panic!
Alphabet isn’t a startup burning cash just to survive. Its heavy infrastructure spending today is laying the groundwork for its next trillion-dollar AI business. Pausing capital expenditures would improve cash flow immediately, but the market certainly doesn’t want to see Alphabet fall behind!
📌 Summary:
The market has overreacted in the short term, creating a rare valuation bargain. When volatility rises, clear-headed judgment is the key to staying in the game for the long run!
I believe this sell-off in Alphabet presents an excellent opportunity to enter despite the risks.

“Different from the crowd” means value investors must overcome their instinct to follow the herd. They judge right and wrong by facts and logic, not by market quotes or the approval of the majority.

The philosophy of the great value investors can be summed up in one central idea: buying a stock means buying part of a business. Buy companies that can continue to create value at a reasonable price, and share in their growth over the long term.

Shared principles

- Stocks represent ownership: Focus on whether a company can continue to earn money and generate cash flow in the future, rather than trying to predict short-term price movements.
- The market is a servant: Stock prices are quoted every day, sometimes reflecting pessimism and sometimes euphoria. Investors take advantage of mispricing rather than letting emotions lead them.
- Margin of safety: Intrinsic value is only an estimate. Buying at a discount provides a buffer against errors in judgment and changes in the business[^15].
- Circle of competence: Invest only in businesses you understand, and know where the boundaries of your understanding lie.
- Long-term compounding: Excellent businesses reinvest their profits and continue to create new value; the longer the time horizon, the more noticeable the effects of compounding.

The differing emphases of three generations of masters

- Graham laid the foundation: He emphasized fundamental analysis, safety of principal, and significant undervaluation. Early on, he often used an asset-discount approach, seeking investments priced far below their liquidation or replacement value.
- Buffett and Munger took it further: Beyond a margin of safety, they placed greater importance on moats, management, earnings stability, and free cash flow. The focus became “buying excellent businesses at reasonable prices,” earning returns from the businesses’ long-term growth.
- Li Lu added a global perspective: Wealth ultimately represents purchasing power. He advocates holding equity in the most creative companies in the most dynamic economies over the long term, allowing wealth to grow through the compounding of the economy.

In practice, this means first studying the business model, then examining competitive advantages and cash flow, estimating intrinsic value, and finally comparing the price with the margin of safety. The prerequisite for holding long term is truly understanding the business. If you discover that your judgment was wrong, find a clearly better opportunity, or see the price become extremely overvalued, you may also consider selling.

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The top traders are, at their core, those who execute a trading system consistently over the long term. Common personality traits mainly fall into five categories:

- Emotionally stable: Gains and losses will trigger emotions, but they can notice them in time and let the rules take over.

- Extremely disciplined: They define entries, stop losses, and position size in advance, and rarely change the plan on the spot.

- Patient and decisive at the same time: They can wait a long time for opportunities to appear; when a signal comes, they dare to act according to the plan.

- Independent and objective: They judge based on price, data, and facts, and are less influenced by hot trends and crowd sentiment.

- Humble and good at reviewing: They see losses as feedback from the system, are willing to admit mistakes, adjust strategies, and keep learning.

These traits ultimately come together into one ability: still being able to execute when losing money in the short term, and still keeping risk boundaries when making money continuously.

The hardest part of trading is not the market, but oneself.
The market is always there, neither increasing nor decreasing, neither dirty nor clean; it is not targeting you, nor favoring anyone. The same K-line, the same trading volume: some see opportunity, some see risk, some see fear, some see nothing at all. The difference is not in the market, but in your heart.

If the heart contains demons, then every place is a trap. An ordinary bearish candle in your eyes becomes the main force washing out weak hands; a normal pullback in your heart becomes the end of the world. If the heart is clear, then every road is open. You know what is a signal and what is noise; you know when to act and when to wait.

This first volume is about the practice of looking inward. Before you look at the market, first understand yourself; before you look for opportunities, first find the "inner demon" in your trading. Cut off the inner demon, and then you will see your true self.

Have a little less greed and a little more long-term thinking, and reduce risk to the minimum. As stock god Warren Buffett said: the first rule of investing and financial management is to preserve your principal, the second rule is still to preserve your principal, and the third rule is to follow the first and second rules!
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🚨 Adding insult to injury! Tech giants topple from their thrones! On Friday, U.S. Eastern Time, Intel plunged 29% and Amazon sank 7%; on Thursday, Google lost nearly $500 billion in market value in a single day. Cracks in the AI trade are widening across the board.
📌 I. A string of earnings shocks from tech giants, with capital spending becoming a heavy burden

Google (GOOGL): Search advertising growth slowed (as AI search modes take a toll), and the company signaled that capital spending will increase “significantly” in 2027. Shares plunged 13% on Thursday, wiping out about $489 billion in market value in a single day!

Amazon (AMZN): Quarterly free cash flow plunged to -$33.5 billion (far below expectations), while capital spending surged to $77.3 billion. Shares sank 7% on Friday.

Intel (INTC): Q4 revenue guidance came in far below expectations, and the company warned it would be unable to achieve positive cash flow this year. PC demand is being curbed by rising memory-chip prices. Shares closed down 29% on Friday, their biggest one-day drop since 1982.

Microsoft (MSFT): Although Azure grew 48%, commercial orders fell 12%, prompting the company to urgently launch a $25 billion bond offering to raise funds.

Meta & Anthropic: Meta announced capital spending of as much as $59 billion and launched a large-scale fundraising effort; Anthropic's computing bill is as high as about $800 billion. The four tech giants' capital spending is set to approach $750 billion this year, and the market is no longer willing to accept AI investments that seem like a bottomless pit.

📉 II. Risk aversion spreads: Crypto markets and high-risk assets come under pressure

The sell-off spread across the board: all of the Magnificent Seven closed lower, memory-chip stocks and emerging cloud providers (Neocloud) were hammered, and Reddit plunged 26%.

Crypto's correlated pullback: Weighed down by declines in tech stocks and risk appetite, Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 5%.

Institutions accelerate their exit: Goldman Sachs data shows hedge funds dumped tech stocks at the fastest pace in any two-week period in more than a decade, while net leverage in U.S. stocks fell to a five-year low.
🌍 III. Macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds intensify

1. Repricing the cost of capital: Goldman Sachs warned that Fed policy and rising capital costs are once again constraining corporate investment, bringing the era of unchecked expansion to an end.

2. Geopolitical and oil-price risks: Markets are concerned that tensions in the Middle East will escalate. Brent crude settled at $117.64/barrel, near its year-to-date high; surging oil prices are heightening concerns about economic stagflation.

We can still expect sharp market swings next week. We will buy the following high-quality company stocks on dips.
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💡 U.S. September PCE inflation rebounds! Energy prices push prices higher, household savings rate hits a four-year low

The latest U.S. September PCE data show a complex mix of “rising inflation + slowing consumption + shrinking savings,” signaling growing economic pressure:

Key data points:

* Headline PCE rose to 3.6% year over year (previously 3.4%), its highest level since May this year; it increased 0.5% month over month. The rise was driven mainly by the recent rebound in crude oil and energy prices.

* Core PCE rose to 3.1% year over year (previously 3.0%), increasing 0.3% month over month. This shows inflationary pressure spreading into non-energy sectors. Elevated non-cyclical inflation could indicate that inflation risks are becoming more deeply entrenched.

* Both income and consumption fell short of expectations: personal income rose 0.2% month over month in September (forecast: 0.5%), while consumer spending rose 0.5% (forecast: 0.6%).

* The household savings rate fell sharply, reaching its lowest level since October 2022, further reducing households’ financial buffer.

📌 Market impact

Inflation has not cooled as expected. Combined with weak household income growth and dwindling savings, this puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult position on monetary policy. Macroeconomic uncertainty could put pressure on risk assets, including crypto markets, and increase volatility.

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