$T This 15m move is a bit too sharp: +3.42%, with volume picking up too. A 1.56x volume multiple and Z-score of 1.75 don't look like a random fakeout. The key is that OI jumped +4.72% in 15m, adding 448K in notional value, while the one-hour change is much less pronounced—a classic case of new leveraged longs rushing in, not shorts covering. The taker imbalance is 5.2%, and the buy/sell ratio is 1.11, so buyers have the edge.
But there's one uncomfortable thing here: the OI anomaly percentile is already at 96%, ranking #2 across the whole pool, and the funding rate is also in a high percentile relative to recent levels. Price and OI rising together means longs are driving the move. The closer it gets to historical extremes, the greater the risk of a squeeze if it runs out of steam. At this point, I'd watch to see if it can break above the previous high on strong volume. If it can't, it's just handing shorts an easy meal.
But there's one uncomfortable thing here: the OI anomaly percentile is already at 96%, ranking #2 across the whole pool, and the funding rate is also in a high percentile relative to recent levels. Price and OI rising together means longs are driving the move. The closer it gets to historical extremes, the greater the risk of a squeeze if it runs out of steam. At this point, I'd watch to see if it can break above the previous high on strong volume. If it can't, it's just handing shorts an easy meal.