Warsh wants to scrap the dot plot; after a wick down to 79,732, $BTC a V-shaped rebound
Guys, two things collided last night: Warsh pushed to downplay the dot plot, while the CPI aftershocks are still being felt. Put simply, the Fed doesn’t want to give us a clear direction anymore, leaving the market to figure out where rates are headed.
CPI is still at 3.7%, and bets on a rate hike in October briefly surged to nearly 50%. With no reference point, volatility was amplified. BTC wicked down to 79,732 before V-reversing to 82,238. ETH rallied from 2,313 to 2,458.
Here’s the key event: at 11:30 this morning, Warsh is having a fireside chat with the IMF chief in Bangkok. The Fed enters its blackout period tomorrow, so this is likely Warsh’s last public appearance before the October rate decision.
Here’s how I’m thinking about trading this:
I’ll consider going long only if 82,000 holds, price breaks above 82,894 (EMA200) on strong volume, and a retest of 82,500–82,600 holds. If I get in, I’ll look first at 84,000–84,500 as the upside target.
• If 82,000 doesn’t hold, I’ll stay out and wait. The next levels to watch are 80,494 and possibly 79,732.
• For ETH, a break above 2,464 puts 2,505 in view. If it falls below 2,414, I’m staying away.
If the conditions aren’t met, I won’t trade.
If the Fed won’t give us a direction, we’ll have to watch the data and the flows ourselves. Are you staying flat and waiting for a signal, or did you get caught out last night? Let’s talk in the comments.
#沃什推动缩减前瞻指引和点阵图
#比特币现货ETF单日净流出2.61亿美元
Guys, two things collided last night: Warsh pushed to downplay the dot plot, while the CPI aftershocks are still being felt. Put simply, the Fed doesn’t want to give us a clear direction anymore, leaving the market to figure out where rates are headed.
CPI is still at 3.7%, and bets on a rate hike in October briefly surged to nearly 50%. With no reference point, volatility was amplified. BTC wicked down to 79,732 before V-reversing to 82,238. ETH rallied from 2,313 to 2,458.
Here’s the key event: at 11:30 this morning, Warsh is having a fireside chat with the IMF chief in Bangkok. The Fed enters its blackout period tomorrow, so this is likely Warsh’s last public appearance before the October rate decision.
Here’s how I’m thinking about trading this:
I’ll consider going long only if 82,000 holds, price breaks above 82,894 (EMA200) on strong volume, and a retest of 82,500–82,600 holds. If I get in, I’ll look first at 84,000–84,500 as the upside target.
• If 82,000 doesn’t hold, I’ll stay out and wait. The next levels to watch are 80,494 and possibly 79,732.
• For ETH, a break above 2,464 puts 2,505 in view. If it falls below 2,414, I’m staying away.
If the conditions aren’t met, I won’t trade.
If the Fed won’t give us a direction, we’ll have to watch the data and the flows ourselves. Are you staying flat and waiting for a signal, or did you get caught out last night? Let’s talk in the comments.
#沃什推动缩减前瞻指引和点阵图
#比特币现货ETF单日净流出2.61亿美元