Everyone’s seen September’s CPI figure, but the real problem isn’t the number—it’s that there’s no way to resolve the oil price issue in the short term.
The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, and shipping capacity is way below pre-war levels. Major banks say things aren’t likely to improve anytime soon. OPEC isn’t planning to increase production either. Looking at the forecasts from several institutions, it may not return to a surplus until next year. As long as oil prices don’t come down, inflation won’t ease.
There’s something a lot of people haven’t quite figured out.
The Fed can use rate hikes to cool down people buying too much stuff, but it can’t make ships pass through the strait. Oil is expensive not because demand is strong, but because supply has been cut off. So rate hikes can’t bring oil prices down—but crypto can’t escape the blow from a rate hike.
After the data came out, the odds of a rate hike in October jumped straight from 20% to 50%, and Treasury yields hit 5.3%—a level not seen since 2002. People had been thinking, “Let’s wait until December.” Now it looks like it could happen this month.
These past couple of days, every finance account has been talking about rate hikes, but hardly anyone has mentioned the strait. That’s the root of the problem.
So don’t wait for one big green candle to fill the hole back in. This kind of market grinds lower slowly. A sharp drop is actually easier to deal with; the scary kind is when it falls a little every day.
I’m still watching the 80,000 level for BTC. If it dips below, I’ll buy. If it can’t hold, I’ll accept that and look to the next level down.
#9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何
The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, and shipping capacity is way below pre-war levels. Major banks say things aren’t likely to improve anytime soon. OPEC isn’t planning to increase production either. Looking at the forecasts from several institutions, it may not return to a surplus until next year. As long as oil prices don’t come down, inflation won’t ease.
There’s something a lot of people haven’t quite figured out.
The Fed can use rate hikes to cool down people buying too much stuff, but it can’t make ships pass through the strait. Oil is expensive not because demand is strong, but because supply has been cut off. So rate hikes can’t bring oil prices down—but crypto can’t escape the blow from a rate hike.
After the data came out, the odds of a rate hike in October jumped straight from 20% to 50%, and Treasury yields hit 5.3%—a level not seen since 2002. People had been thinking, “Let’s wait until December.” Now it looks like it could happen this month.
These past couple of days, every finance account has been talking about rate hikes, but hardly anyone has mentioned the strait. That’s the root of the problem.
So don’t wait for one big green candle to fill the hole back in. This kind of market grinds lower slowly. A sharp drop is actually easier to deal with; the scary kind is when it falls a little every day.
I’m still watching the 80,000 level for BTC. If it dips below, I’ll buy. If it can’t hold, I’ll accept that and look to the next level down.
#9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何