BTC Market Update (After CPI Data Release)
U.S. CPI inflation came in above expectations across the board. The market’s odds of an October rate hike could potentially double outright, with “higher rates for longer, or even another hike” becoming the market’s new baseline.
• Short term: The odds of an immediate rate hike in October are below 50%, so an extreme panic sell-off is unlikely;
• Medium term: Expectations of higher rates will continue to weigh on risk assets. A stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields directly limit BTC’s upside, and any subsequent rebound could easily run out of steam.
Based on tonight’s market action, here are the key resistance levels: the first intraday resistance remains at 84000–84509. Only if BTC regains and holds this range will near-term weakness begin to ease. Strong resistance above is at 87000–87500.
• Support: The first line of defense in the short term is 81000–81500. If the daily candle breaks below 80000 decisively, there will be more room for a pullback, with the next strong support at 77000–78000.
So for those trading tonight, there should be no major issue with taking a quick short-term trade on a rebound around 83000–82500.
U.S. CPI inflation came in above expectations across the board. The market’s odds of an October rate hike could potentially double outright, with “higher rates for longer, or even another hike” becoming the market’s new baseline.
• Short term: The odds of an immediate rate hike in October are below 50%, so an extreme panic sell-off is unlikely;
• Medium term: Expectations of higher rates will continue to weigh on risk assets. A stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields directly limit BTC’s upside, and any subsequent rebound could easily run out of steam.
Based on tonight’s market action, here are the key resistance levels: the first intraday resistance remains at 84000–84509. Only if BTC regains and holds this range will near-term weakness begin to ease. Strong resistance above is at 87000–87500.
• Support: The first line of defense in the short term is 81000–81500. If the daily candle breaks below 80000 decisively, there will be more room for a pullback, with the next strong support at 77000–78000.
So for those trading tonight, there should be no major issue with taking a quick short-term trade on a rebound around 83000–82500.