$BTC surged all the way from around $81,000 to break through $86,000; $ETH is up about 5.6%. SOL and XRP are both up around 7%. On the U.S. stock side, $QQQB also hit a record closing high. Oil prices pulled back, and the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield slipped back below 5%—overall risk appetite is clearly back.
Next week won’t be quiet either: on Tuesday and Wednesday, several Fed officials are scheduled to speak; on Wednesday, watch the U.S. PMI. On Thursday there are initial jobless claims for the week, plus a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping. On Friday, there are durable goods orders and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
If the data is strong and the Fed remains more hawkish, Treasury yields and the dollar could move higher again, which may put pressure on BTC and tech stocks. On the other hand, if the data cools off or expectations for China–U.S. trade improve, risk-asset sentiment could continue to get support.
And as usual, I’ll remind everyone once more: before and after major news breaks, try to avoid jumping in. Let the market work out its structure on its own—enter only after you can see it clearly, yeah~
🧧🎁🌹🧧🎁🌹 Xiaomo is bullish on a Bitcoin short-squeeze scenario: In its latest report, JPMorgan Chase noted that BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) has short positions nearing this year’s high point. This imbalance in open-contract ratios may create more upside for Bitcoin, because once the price rises, the short squeeze will further accelerate its rebound. ZetaChain proposal approved—transitioning to Solana: With an overwhelming 99.4% support rate, the ZetaChain community passed Proposal No. 68. The vote will close its original Layer 1 blockchain and migrate and convert the ZETA token on a 1:1 basis into Solana-native SPL tokens. In the future, the team will focus on AI applications. Follow me and answer to take away the $SOL red envelope! 🧧🎁🌹🧧🎁🌹
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I think the Fed is more likely to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points in September. That’s my reading of the data. We still have to wait for the actual decision.
August added 162,000 jobs against a Reuters forecast of 55,000, with unemployment at 4.1%. That gives the Fed some room to deal with inflation.
CPI rose 0.4% for the month and 3.4% over the year. Core CPI was up 0.3% monthly, although the annual figure eased to 2.4%. There’s some progress there, but monthly inflation is picking up again.
I’m holding XAUT/USDT from 4,362 USDT. The move back from 4,400 looks like a pullback to me. I’m cautiously bullish for the next week if buyers defend 4,355–4,360. I’m holding for another attempt at 4,400.
The risk I’m watching is a stronger dollar alongside higher real bond yields. Gold pays no interest, so rising yields can make bonds more attractive and put pressure on my gold position.
If price stays below 4,355, I’d have to rethink the rebound. Clear signs of weaker hiring and cooling inflation would also make me reconsider the hike call.
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