$$ETH on the 2700 mark—its highest level since the end of January this year, rising about 3.5% intraday. Most people only look at the price; I’m more interested in who is buying and who is selling.
Let’s break down the capital flows: On September 18, US spot Ethereum ETF net inflows were about $143.8 million, ending the prior three straight days of outflows (from September 15 to 17, total outflows were about $405 million). But the money on that day was highly concentrated—BlackRock’s ETHA alone absorbed about $114.3 million, nearly 80% of that day’s total; Fidelity’s FETH added roughly $26 million. Together, the two accounted for about 98%. In other words, the “ETF rebound” was essentially a large single-product subscription, not a broad-based industry demand recovery.
Now let’s look at derivatives. Ethereum futures saw about $36.4 billion in 24-hour trading volume—more than a dozen times the spot trading volume during the same period. Funding rates stayed in positive territory. That means long positions are paying shorts; longs aren’t getting a bargain. In this kind of structure, price can jump when shorts are forced to cover—but “funding/short squeeze” momentum doesn’t automatically translate into sustained spot buying.
On the supply side, the picture is actually more solid: exchange-held ETH reserves have fallen to around 14.6 million ETH, the lowest since 2016. Staking volume is about 43 million ETH, or roughly 35% of total supply. Staking demand is more than a dozen times staking exit demand. In short, truly liquid supply is shrinking.
This is where the disagreement lies. Bulls argue the circulating float is tightening; bears say it’s just market making and short-term capital cycling back and forth. My view is that this move is more of a “supply narrative” than a “demand narrative.” If the ETF’s large one-day inflow turns into a long-term allocation, you’d expect continuity; if it’s merely spread or arbitrage trading, it will exit just as quickly as it entered.
Going forward, watch two things: whether, in the remaining trading days this week, we can see net inflows of the same scale again—and whether 2700 can truly shift from resistance to support.
Which side do you favor? Is 2700 the starting point of this move, or is it yet another “touch it and go”?
#Ethereum Breaks Above $2700
Let’s break down the capital flows: On September 18, US spot Ethereum ETF net inflows were about $143.8 million, ending the prior three straight days of outflows (from September 15 to 17, total outflows were about $405 million). But the money on that day was highly concentrated—BlackRock’s ETHA alone absorbed about $114.3 million, nearly 80% of that day’s total; Fidelity’s FETH added roughly $26 million. Together, the two accounted for about 98%. In other words, the “ETF rebound” was essentially a large single-product subscription, not a broad-based industry demand recovery.
Now let’s look at derivatives. Ethereum futures saw about $36.4 billion in 24-hour trading volume—more than a dozen times the spot trading volume during the same period. Funding rates stayed in positive territory. That means long positions are paying shorts; longs aren’t getting a bargain. In this kind of structure, price can jump when shorts are forced to cover—but “funding/short squeeze” momentum doesn’t automatically translate into sustained spot buying.
On the supply side, the picture is actually more solid: exchange-held ETH reserves have fallen to around 14.6 million ETH, the lowest since 2016. Staking volume is about 43 million ETH, or roughly 35% of total supply. Staking demand is more than a dozen times staking exit demand. In short, truly liquid supply is shrinking.
This is where the disagreement lies. Bulls argue the circulating float is tightening; bears say it’s just market making and short-term capital cycling back and forth. My view is that this move is more of a “supply narrative” than a “demand narrative.” If the ETF’s large one-day inflow turns into a long-term allocation, you’d expect continuity; if it’s merely spread or arbitrage trading, it will exit just as quickly as it entered.
Going forward, watch two things: whether, in the remaining trading days this week, we can see net inflows of the same scale again—and whether 2700 can truly shift from resistance to support.
Which side do you favor? Is 2700 the starting point of this move, or is it yet another “touch it and go”?
#Ethereum Breaks Above $2700