SOL：Valuation observations under on-chain activity and the ETF narrative
First, the conclusion: this round, SOL hasn’t quite kept up with the market’s excitement. But the on-chain fundamentals are quietly getting stronger—an archetypal divergence where the price trades sideways while the data trends upward. It’s worth watching rather than rushing to chase.
Let’s look at a few hard numbers. As of the time of writing, SOL is trading at $103.8. Its 24-hour gain is about 1.2%. Over the same period, BTC is up about 1.5% and ETH up about 1.8%—among the majors, SOL is the most sluggish.
Trading volume over 24 hours is $189 million. The price range is $102.5 to $105.2, with a very small amplitude, suggesting neither bulls nor bears show much conviction and market sentiment is relatively cautious.
But this doesn’t mean nobody is using it. Solana’s core narrative has shifted from a “high-performance L1” to “on-chain trading and stablecoin settlement infrastructure.” Metrics like on-chain transaction volume, active addresses, and stablecoin supply are its real ballast. Many analyses attribute SOL’s underperformance to market attention being pulled away by AI-themed tokens such as FET—yet capital hasn’t left the chain; it’s just temporarily rotated toward flashier stories.
On valuation: SOL’s current price remains about 65% off its historical high of $293—basically “down far enough, but not yet ignited.” The real catalysts to watch are twofold: (1) whether further rollout of the stablecoin/payments narrative can translate into genuine on-chain revenue; and (2) whether expectations for a SOL spot ETF heat up. As long as either one materializes, narrative-driven valuation should return.
My view is: in the short term, SOL lacks independent upside momentum, so it’s not suitable for chasing. However, if on-chain activity continues to rise while the price doesn’t, the longer this divergence persists, the stronger the potential mid-term rebound.
Risk warning: The above is only based on market and data observations and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile. Even though SOL has fundamental support, it may still retrace in the short term alongside the broader market—please make your own judgment and manage your position size independently.
First, the conclusion: this round, SOL hasn’t quite kept up with the market’s excitement. But the on-chain fundamentals are quietly getting stronger—an archetypal divergence where the price trades sideways while the data trends upward. It’s worth watching rather than rushing to chase.
Let’s look at a few hard numbers. As of the time of writing, SOL is trading at $103.8. Its 24-hour gain is about 1.2%. Over the same period, BTC is up about 1.5% and ETH up about 1.8%—among the majors, SOL is the most sluggish.
Trading volume over 24 hours is $189 million. The price range is $102.5 to $105.2, with a very small amplitude, suggesting neither bulls nor bears show much conviction and market sentiment is relatively cautious.
But this doesn’t mean nobody is using it. Solana’s core narrative has shifted from a “high-performance L1” to “on-chain trading and stablecoin settlement infrastructure.” Metrics like on-chain transaction volume, active addresses, and stablecoin supply are its real ballast. Many analyses attribute SOL’s underperformance to market attention being pulled away by AI-themed tokens such as FET—yet capital hasn’t left the chain; it’s just temporarily rotated toward flashier stories.
On valuation: SOL’s current price remains about 65% off its historical high of $293—basically “down far enough, but not yet ignited.” The real catalysts to watch are twofold: (1) whether further rollout of the stablecoin/payments narrative can translate into genuine on-chain revenue; and (2) whether expectations for a SOL spot ETF heat up. As long as either one materializes, narrative-driven valuation should return.
My view is: in the short term, SOL lacks independent upside momentum, so it’s not suitable for chasing. However, if on-chain activity continues to rise while the price doesn’t, the longer this divergence persists, the stronger the potential mid-term rebound.
Risk warning: The above is only based on market and data observations and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile. Even though SOL has fundamental support, it may still retrace in the short term alongside the broader market—please make your own judgment and manage your position size independently.