Altcoin investors may close 2025 without seeing meaningful profits in their portfolios. Despite that grim reality, a growing number of analysts remain cautiously optimistic—even as the total altcoin market capitalization (TOTAL2) has fallen nearly 30% from its yearly peak.
So why do experts believe the altcoin bear market is approaching its final chapter rather than the beginning of a deeper collapse?
The arguments below outline the key structural, psychological, and technical reasons behind this conviction.
Altcoins: A Phase That Historically Creates Opportunity
According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, only around 3% of altcoins listed on Binance are currently trading above their 200-day moving average—one of the lowest readings ever recorded.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost explains that this extreme condition is largely driven by:
Severe liquidity contraction
Persistent risk-off behavior
Capital concentration in Bitcoin and stablecoins
In the current environment, most investors are prioritizing capital preservation rather than exposure to high-risk assets. As a result, the vast majority of altcoins are trading below long-term trend levels, signaling widespread undervaluation caused by pessimistic sentiment rather than fundamental collapse.
Recent comparative research shows that fundamentally solid projects such as XRP, TON, and ADA continue to build and expand their ecosystems, yet their market prices remain disconnected from intrinsic value.
Historically, such broad-based weakness has preceded major altcoin recoveries, not prolonged declines.
“It may feel counterintuitive, but periods like this often offer the best long-term opportunities. This phase can last longer—especially if markets remain in a macro downcycle—but that doesn’t negate its strategic value,” Darkfost noted.
Fear and Apathy: A Prime Accumulation Window for Smart Money
Extreme fear, boredom, and disengagement among retail investors often mark late-stage bear markets, not early ones.
Prominent market analyst CrediBULL Crypto has repeatedly emphasized that attention precedes capital. When retail interest vanishes, volatility dries up—and this is precisely when large players quietly accumulate.
The typical cycle unfolds as follows:
Retail investors lose interest and exit positions
Volatility compresses and price action becomes dull
Institutional and whale wallets accumulate at discounted levels
Early green candles appear
Retail attention returns—after prices have already moved
This behavioral pattern has repeated across multiple crypto cycles. The current lack of enthusiasm toward altcoins may therefore be less a warning sign—and more a classic contrarian indicator.
Technical Signals Suggest a Structural Bottom Is Forming
From a technical perspective, several long-term indicators suggest the altcoin market is approaching a high-conviction support zone.
Well-known analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently highlighted that the current TOTAL2 capitalization level is acting as a critical macro support.
“We are sitting at a very important support area. Holding this level makes long exposure attractive. Strong reactions from this zone could be the first signal that green candles are coming back,” he stated.
Additional technical and market-structure signals reinforce this view:
Altcoin market cap (excluding top 10) relative to Bitcoin is at its strongest support level since 2017
Altcoin dominance mirrors levels seen during the COVID crash—an event that preceded one of the strongest altcoin rallies in history
Momentum indicators across multiple timeframes show bearish pressure weakening, not accelerating
These conditions suggest that the market is transitioning from distribution → capitulation → accumulation, rather than entering a fresh bearish impulse.
Strategy Outlook: Patience Over Prediction
While optimism is growing, analysts remain clear-eyed about the risks. Venture capital inflows are still weak, liquidity remains selective, and a full-fledged altcoin season may not arrive immediately—even in 2026.
That said, research from Coinphoton indicates that DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) strategies initiated from December onward have historically delivered strong risk-adjusted returns during similar market phases.
The key takeaway is not timing the exact bottom—but positioning during periods of maximum pessimism.
Final Thoughts
Altcoins may still feel “dead” to most market participants. But history shows that the end of a bear market rarely feels optimistic. It feels boring, painful, and quiet—exactly like now.
For patient investors, this phase may not be comfortable—but it could prove decisive.
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