tradingexpectancy

A 70% win rate can still lose money. Read that again. ⚠️

Trading expectancy is what happens when your average win, average loss, win rate, and number of trades work together over time.

The simple idea:

Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss)

Example in R:
You win 40% of trades.
Your average winner = +2R.
Your average loser = −1R.

That’s:
(0.40 × 2R) − (0.60 × 1R) = +0.20R per trade.

You can lose more often than you win—and still have an edge. 🎯

Now add frequency. A +0.20R setup taken 5 times tells you little. Taken consistently across 50 valid setups, the edge has more room to show itself.

But don’t force trades to increase frequency. More bad trades do not improve expectancy.

Practical rule: track every trade in R, then review after 30–50 trades:
• Win rate
• Average win
• Average loss
• Rule-following

One trade is emotion. A sample is information.

Your goal isn’t to be right every time. It’s to make sure your winners and losers add up in your favor. 🧠

Do you know your average win and average loss in R? 👇

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