datadrop

Bitcoin is heading for an unwanted record: two consecutive red years, for the first time in its 18-year history.

Key figures:
• 2025: −6.34% (Decrypt, Nov 11, 2026)
• 2026 so far: −15.65%, at around $73,850 as of Nov 10 (Decrypt; Blockonomi, Nov 11, 2026, CoinGecko data)
• To avoid a second red year, BTC needs to gain +18.5% to ~$87,500 before Dec 31 — 50 days left
• Combined over two years: ~−21%, far less severe than 2018 (−73.56%) and 2022 (−64.27%)
• From its peak of ~$126,000 (Oct 2025), BTC briefly fell more than 50% to below $58,000

What it means, in my view: every red year in Bitcoin's history has been followed by a green year — that pattern is now at risk of breaking. The nuance: on a yearly basis, this is “not that red” compared with 2018/2022; the brutal part was the journey along the way, with a drawdown of more than 50% from the peak. This is calendar-year statistics, not a prediction — 50 days is still enough to swing the story either way.

What I'm watching next: the $87,500 mark as the year-end decider, and whether BTC can get back above $75,700 (short-term holder cost basis). The nearest catalyst: US PPI on Friday at 20:30 WIB.

Do you think BTC will close 2026 above or below $87,500?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#Bitcoin #DataDrop $BTC

47,300 BTC were sent to exchanges at a loss in 24 hours — compared with only around 1,100 BTC sent at a profit.

Key figures:
• 47,300 BTC entered exchanges below their purchase price vs. ~1,100 BTC above their purchase price (CryptoQuant, analyst Darkfost, via Decrypt/PANews, Nov. 11, 2026) — around 48,500 BTC in total, worth about $3.6 billion.
• For comparison: 46,060 BTC at a loss were recorded on Nov. 10 (a nearly 27:1 ratio); on Nov. 3, the figure briefly reached 50,790 BTC — this is the third wave in a week.
• Context: Darkfost notes that BTC has been going through a distribution phase since October, with a correction of around 15%; the price is now around $73,700, still below the short-term holder cost basis of ~$75,700.

My take: this smells like capitulation by short-term holders — they’re giving up and moving their coins to exchanges. But honestly, a transfer to an exchange doesn’t mean a sale; some may be for trading, swaps, or collateral, and the data measures transfers, not final sales. A single dataset is never enough to draw a conclusion — this one measures potential selling pressure, not a signal that the bottom is in.

What I’m watching next: whether these loss-making inflows ease or grow, whether BTC can reclaim $75,700, and the U.S. PPI on Friday at 20:30 WIB.

What do you think — is this wave of loss-making transfers a sign the market is being flushed out, or is another wave still coming?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#Bitcoin #DataDrop $BTC