bitcoin

Listen, I need to share something that's been keeping me up at night.
Everyone's talking about waiting another 4 years for Bitcoin's next major run. They're wrong. Dead wrong.
And I'm going to show you exactly why the data tells a completely different story.
The Model That's Been Hiding in Plain Sight
I've spent weeks diving deep into Bitcoin's long-term cycle patterns, analyzing over 16 years of market data. What I discovered isn't some random theory—it's backed by serious mathematics.
We're talking about 5,600+ individual data points with a statistical fit that's nearly perfect (R² of 0.98 for you data nerds out there).
Here's what makes this different: This analysis uses the same framework physicists use to predict earthquakes and material failures. Bitcoin's price behavior mirrors these critical systems almost perfectly.
Where We Actually Stand Right Now
The current price? It's sitting below Bitcoin's long-term growth trajectory.
Now, before you panic, let me tell you why this is actually incredible news.
Every single time Bitcoin has hung out in this zone for an extended period, it hasn't signaled a top. It's signaled an accumulation phase—the calm before an absolutely massive storm.
Look at the history:
2015: Same pattern. What followed? Massive expansion.2019: Same pattern. What followed? Another huge run.
We're in that zone right now.
The Timeline Nobody Wants to Hear (But Needs To)
Here's where I'm going to lose some people, but stick with me.
2026 is going to suck.
Seriously. Expect choppy markets, potential downside, maybe even a grind that tests your patience. Liquidity conditions and broader economic pressures will weigh heavy.
But that's not the end of the story. Not even close.
The Real Opportunity: 2027-2029
The mathematical models point to something remarkable starting in late 2026 and running through 2029.
This isn't about a quick pump and dump. We're talking about a sustained, multi-year expansion window—the kind that creates generational wealth.
Based purely on the trend analysis, Bitcoin hitting $250,000+ by 2029 isn't some moonshot fantasy. It's actually the conservative estimate from this framework.
Could it go higher? Absolutely. But $250k is where the core mathematical trajectory lands without even accounting for excessive market mania.
Why This Makes Sense (Even If You're Skeptical)
Think about it: Bitcoin's wild 1,000%+ gains happened when it was worth pennies or a few hundred dollars. Those percentage moves were enormous because the base was tiny.
But here's what people miss—a 60-80% move on a six-figure asset is still life-changing money. That's what market maturation looks like. Lower percentage gains, but massive absolute dollar increases.
The Risk-Reward That's Hard to Ignore
Even if this specific model completely fails, Bitcoin would likely revert to its historical power-law trend. And guess what? That still implies significantly higher prices.
For this entire 16-year pattern to break down, you'd need the structure to fail right as:
Major institutions are piling inGovernments are starting to hold BitcoinGlobal adoption is accelerating
Possible? Sure. Probable? I don't think so.
My Track Record (And Why This Matters)
Look, I'm not some random person throwing charts around.
I called Bitcoin's bottom at $16,000 three years ago when everyone said it was going to zero.
I called the top last October when everyone was screaming about $100k by Christmas.
I've been studying macroeconomics for 22 years and Bitcoin specifically since 2013. This is what I do.
The Bottom Line
Here's your roadmap:
✅ 2026: Expect pain. Volatility. Doubt. This is when weak hands fold.
✅ 2027-2029: The setup for the most significant expansion phase we've seen in years.
✅ Target: $250,000+ is mathematically supported by the trend structure.
✅ Strategy: This is a long-duration position, not a quick flip.
The bottom is forming first. Then comes the expansion. That's how these cycles work.
What I'm Doing
When I start accumulating Bitcoin again, I'll announce it publicly. No games, no hidden moves.
If you're not paying attention to these signals, you're going to look back in 2029 and wonder why you didn't act when the data was screaming at you.
The biggest opportunities come when the market is bleeding and everyone's given up hope. That's exactly where we're headed in 2026.
And that's exactly when you should be getting ready.
The data doesn't lie. The question is: Will you listen?
#bitcoin #BTC #CryptoAnalysis #BitcoinCycles

🐋
📉On-chain legend Ai Yi just exposed a masterclass in Bitcoin shorting.
The Move: Whale closed 20 BTC for a $465,000 gain.The War Chest: Still holds 550.7 BTC short ($48.6M).Total Profit: $55.51M (including $9.6M in funding fees).

This whale has been shorting since March 2025.
Trimming now suggests a "De-risking" move before a potential year-end bounce.
$BTC

$ETH

$BNB

#bitcoin #WhaleWatch #BTC #crypto #ShortSqueeze

#bitcoin has been in a bear market since September, and nothing has changed since then. I said in September that we would not bottom in 2–3 months, not in 4–5 months, no. It will take at least 12–14 months to fully bottom out, with a price target in the 60k region for BTC, which is going to happen. As always, people tend to believe that markets will react or move fast, not understanding the importance of liquidity formation and that’s why time matters in such a price movement. Regarding this, I believe that BTC will see an upside move toward the 97–107k region in the coming weeks. I don’t even believe that any big downside move will happen before February, March 2026. This is why I am saying we will stay in a long sideways range for the next couple of weeks until the final leg down starts. I have been saying this since November, stating that BTC entered a phase of sideways movement, whose entire goal is to create more liquidity on the downside. That’s why it takes time, and this means a couple of months. It’s hard for many people to understand, as many expect fast moves or moves straight to the target, but that’s not how markets work.

For this reason, I am bullish in the short term and have bought BTC, but my short stays open and is not closed at all. This means the market allows me to operate more flexibly by keeping the short open, which can now act as a perfect hedge, while using capital in reserve to buy more BTC and sell later with a 20% price increase once we reach the target of the 97–107k region. This is the exact plan as of now, and I am expecting a slow rise as well, continued with a lot of manipulation to exhaust as many people as possible. Imagine the following scenario: the same repeat of what we saw in the last 6 months, again for another 12 months. How many will be able to buy the bottom? How many will be psychologically able to buy the bottom in a year? How many will be psychologically defeated? And how many will start FOMO after prices reach a new ATH and beyond, missing the entire move after the bottom was seen? These are very important questions that should be answered.

In my opinion, the markets remain in an extremely tight liquidity crisis, as I mentioned and observed already in August, and now the markets seem to have understood that liquidity is indeed extremely low. We see, on almost all recession or liquidity indicators, the same levels as in 2008 and worse. We have worse liquidity than during the Credit Suisse crisis, and somehow the banks manage to survive. The reason for this survival is the new rule regarding the Standing Repo facility, which no longer limits banks to borrowing a maximum of $500bn per day in total for all banks together. Now it means each bank can borrow up to $240bn per day from the Fed and needs to pay it back 1–2 days later with interest. This change means the Federal Reserve is acting like an always-open emergency cash window for banks so the financial system never runs out of short-term money. Banks are not being given free money, and they are not being paid to borrow. They temporarily hand over very safe assets like US government bonds and receive cash only for one night, and the next day they must give that cash back with interest. Before, the Fed limited how much total cash all banks together could borrow, which risked panic if too many banks needed money at the same time. Now that limit is gone, so any bank with proper collateral will always get the cash it needs. The number showing that a bank could theoretically borrow up to $240bn per day sounds huge, but it is misleading because the money must be returned the next day and cannot be kept or accumulated. This is very important for those who watch the standing repo and understand that the repo market is something like a money-printing machine, this is something only someone uneducated would say. Saying this equals tens of trillions per year is like saying someone earns money by using a credit card every day, which is not true. This does not mean the Fed is printing unlimited money or canceling tariffs or politics; it simply means the Fed wants to prevent sudden freezes in the financial system. The real message is that the system is fragile enough that the Fed wants to remove any chance of a liquidity accident by guaranteeing short-term cash at all times as long as banks provide safe assets.

Now ask yourself again: why all of this? Are we fighting inflation? Are we winning the fight or losing it? The real answer is that we are losing the fight against inflation and debt, and I am expecting a big crisis to happen in 2026, followed by COVID-style money printing in late 2026 and a repeated 2020 scenario. Assets, real estate, gold, silver, Bitcoin everything will increase, and money will keep losing value. That’s the reality, and yet I am saying the printers will turn on once we see the crisis, and it is very close in my opinion.

Enjoy your tea, wait, dont over-trade

Regarding #Bitcoin, my position remains the same: fully in USDT, with shorts averaging an entry around 119K
$BTC
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY. ALL WRITTEN HERE IS MY OPINION AND MY OWN TRADING AND INVESTING

Renowned investor Robert Kiyosaki has recently reignited global debate with a series of provocative statements, arguing that modern geopolitics cannot be separated from monetary power — especially the dominance of the U.S. dollar and the petrodollar system.
According to Kiyosaki, history repeatedly shows that wars are rarely just about “freedom” or “democracy.” More often, they are about money, energy, and control over global liquidity.
When Oil Stops Being Sold in Dollars, War Follows
In 2000, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein announced that Iraq would sell oil in euros instead of U.S. dollars. At the time, the world barely noticed.
Three years later, the United States launched the Iraq War.
No weapons of mass destruction were ever found. But something else quietly happened:
👉 Iraqi oil was once again priced exclusively in USD.
A similar story unfolded in Libya. In 2009, Muammar Gaddafi proposed the creation of a gold-backed African dinar, allowing African nations to trade oil without relying on the U.S. dollar.
By 2011, NATO intervened under the banner of “humanitarian protection.” Gaddafi was overthrown, the gold dinar disappeared, and Libyan oil returned to the dollar system.
Too many coincidences to dismiss as random.
The True Origin of the Petrodollar
Kiyosaki traces the root of the current system back to 1971, when President Richard Nixon ended the gold standard. From that moment, the U.S. dollar was no longer backed by gold — only by trust.
By historical logic, the dollar should have collapsed.
It didn’t — because in 1974, the U.S. struck a pivotal deal with Saudi Arabia, brokered by Henry Kissinger:
Saudi Arabia would sell oil only in USD
The U.S. would provide military protection to the Saudi regime
From that point on, every country on Earth needed U.S. dollars to buy energy.
This was not free-market capitalism.
This was monetary policy enforced by military power.
Challenging the System Comes at a Price
Modern history shows a clear pattern:
Any nation attempting to escape the petrodollar system pays a heavy price.
Russia demanded gas payments in rubles → sanctions, financial warfare, escalation
Iran sold oil outside the USD system → decades of isolation
Syria discussed non-USD pipeline routes → prolonged war, projects erased
Even the SWIFT payment system, often portrayed as neutral, has become a geopolitical weapon. Being removed from SWIFT effectively means being cut off from global trade — a fate shared by Russia, Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela, regardless of political ideology.
The Cycle of Monetary Empires
Kiyosaki argues that the U.S. is not immune to history.
Before the dollar, there was the British pound.
Before that, the Dutch guilder.
When a reserve currency loses its dominance, the empire behind it slowly declines.
Ray Dalio has repeatedly warned about signs of a late-stage empire:
Exploding government debt
Military overstretch
Currency debasement
Rival powers building alternative systems
BRICS, non-USD trade agreements, and alternative payment rails are not acts of friendship — they are acts of financial survival.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative is not charity. It is a long-term strategy to build trade, debt, and influence denominated outside the U.S. dollar system.
Why Gold and Bitcoin Are the Ultimate Beneficiaries
In this environment, gold and Bitcoin emerge as neutral assets — not controlled by any government or military alliance.
Gold has preserved value for thousands of years. It cannot be printed, sanctioned, or defaulted on.
Bitcoin, with its fixed supply and decentralized network, represents digital scarcity — often called “digital gold” for the modern financial era.
As the U.S. dollar gradually loses its “exorbitant privilege” — the ability to print without immediate consequences — trust will continue shifting toward hard, scarce, and uncontrollable assets.
This is not pessimism.
This is financial history.
Wars are sold to the public as battles for freedom and democracy.
But policy documents speak more frequently about something else entirely:
👉 “Maintaining USD liquidity in global energy markets.”
Kiyosaki’s conclusion is clear:
He does not oppose the military.
He opposes dishonesty.
If societies are asked to pay with lives and debt, the public deserves to know the real reason behind the cost.
📌 Follow for more deep insights on macro, crypto, gold, and the real forces shaping global markets.
#bitcoin #GOLD