Bitcoin (BTC) price remained above the $69,000 mark, despite the market experiencing the biggest quarterly Bitcoin futures options expiry events.
Hao Yang, the global head of derivatives trading at Bybit exchange, told Cointelegraph:
“We have experienced the largest option expiration in history, for Bybit and Deribit as well, people may roll over or unwind their hedging position during the expiration time, and the action of unwinding may have a small impact on the price movement in the very short term.”
Over $15.1 billion worth of cryptocurrency futures options have expired on Deribit this Friday, March 29, at 8:00 am UTC, according to a March 28 X post by Deribit.
Of the $15.1 billion, $9.53 billion represented the notional value of Bitcoin options about to expire, at a put/call ratio of 0.84, with a “max pain” price potential of $51,000.
BTC Options: Open interest by strike price. Source: Deribit
While options expiry can lead to heightened volatility, the max pain price point doesn’t offer an accurate reflection of Bitcoin’s long-term price potential which is still tied to its fundamental values, Yang explained:
“Just as a fancy gaming PC case doesn't directly impact the performance of the hardware inside, max pain is an indicator that provides some insight but ultimately has limited influence on the actual price movement of Bitcoin.”
Despite the options expiry, the expected price impact will be minimal, says Andrey Stoychev, the project manager at Nexo’s Prime Brokerage division. He told Cointelegraph:
“With the current scenario where calls are substantially in the money while puts are converging to zero, delta hedging has largely concluded, and we anticipate minimal price impact from the expiry. However, the pivotal question remains: will the call profits be reinvested into new contracts, and if so, what strikes and maturities will be favored?”
The pre-halving Bitcoin correction may be over
Bitcoin price fell 0.7% in the 24 hours leading up to 10:35 am UTC to trade at $69,924, according to CoinMarketCap data. The world’s first cryptocurrency is up over 11.9% on the monthly chart.
BTC/USDT/ 1-day chart. Source: CoinMarketCap
Bitcoin’s historic pre-halving retracement occurred in line with previous historical retraces. The current pre-halving correction may be over if Bitcoin price can flip its old all-time high of $69,000 into support, said Rekt Capital in a March 26 video analysis:
“Bitcoin is now peaking beyond this old all-time high, potentially positioning itself for this pre-halving retracement to be over.”