So December rate hike? Yeah, the market's basically penciled that in as a done deal now — CME options are showing it clear as day.
What's wild though is the double-hike probability. That thing literally doubled overnight. Sitting around 15% now. Not huge, but definitely not noise either.
I've seen these probabilities shift before, and when they move that fast, it usually means *something* spooked the big money. Could be fresh data, could be Fed whispers, could be nothing. But 15% for a double move? That's the market hedging against a scenario most people aren't even talking about yet.
Remember — these aren't predictions, they're just what traders are willing to bet on right now. The vibe can flip again by next week. But worth watching.
What's wild though is the double-hike probability. That thing literally doubled overnight. Sitting around 15% now. Not huge, but definitely not noise either.
I've seen these probabilities shift before, and when they move that fast, it usually means *something* spooked the big money. Could be fresh data, could be Fed whispers, could be nothing. But 15% for a double move? That's the market hedging against a scenario most people aren't even talking about yet.
Remember — these aren't predictions, they're just what traders are willing to bet on right now. The vibe can flip again by next week. But worth watching.
