QQQ rallied 3.5% yesterday. Does that mean the correction is over?
Not yet. One strong green day doesn't confirm a new uptrend.
Here's where we stand:
- Nov 5: QQQ dropped 6.5% on heavy volume, undercutting prior lows
- Nov 6: First up close — Day 1 of the rally attempt
- Nov 9: QQQ gained 3.5% on Day 2, but volume was lighter than the previous session
What I'm watching:
- Day 1 low must hold. If it breaks, the rally count resets
- Follow-Through Day: Starting Thursday, Nov 12, I'm looking for a strong index gain — ideally 1.25%+ on higher volume
- Market breadth: Are more stocks participating, or is this just a handful of mega-caps?
- Leading stocks: Are fundamentally strong names reclaiming key moving averages and holding gains?
QQQ is still below its declining 10-day and 20-day EMAs. The short-term trend hasn't reversed yet.
Even a Follow-Through Day doesn't guarantee a new bull market. Leadership, breadth, and subsequent price action still matter.
One of the biggest lessons from William O'Neil: You don't need to predict market bottoms. You need to recognize when a new uptrend is beginning.
You don't need the first 10% or the last 10%. The real opportunity is identifying the next leaders and capturing the middle of a sustained uptrend.
I'll keep you updated as the rally develops and if we see a confirmed FTD.
Not yet. One strong green day doesn't confirm a new uptrend.
Here's where we stand:
- Nov 5: QQQ dropped 6.5% on heavy volume, undercutting prior lows
- Nov 6: First up close — Day 1 of the rally attempt
- Nov 9: QQQ gained 3.5% on Day 2, but volume was lighter than the previous session
What I'm watching:
- Day 1 low must hold. If it breaks, the rally count resets
- Follow-Through Day: Starting Thursday, Nov 12, I'm looking for a strong index gain — ideally 1.25%+ on higher volume
- Market breadth: Are more stocks participating, or is this just a handful of mega-caps?
- Leading stocks: Are fundamentally strong names reclaiming key moving averages and holding gains?
QQQ is still below its declining 10-day and 20-day EMAs. The short-term trend hasn't reversed yet.
Even a Follow-Through Day doesn't guarantee a new bull market. Leadership, breadth, and subsequent price action still matter.
One of the biggest lessons from William O'Neil: You don't need to predict market bottoms. You need to recognize when a new uptrend is beginning.
You don't need the first 10% or the last 10%. The real opportunity is identifying the next leaders and capturing the middle of a sustained uptrend.
I'll keep you updated as the rally develops and if we see a confirmed FTD.