Traders now price an 85 percent chance of a December Fed hike. One CPI print could change that. ⚠️
The CME FedWatch tool cited by CoinDesk and Blockonomi puts about an 80 to 85 percent chance on a quarter point rate increase at the Fed meeting on 9 December, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller has said he favoured a higher rate even if inflation cooled. 📊 The October CPI report lands at 18:30 PKT today, with economists expecting headline inflation up 0.3 percent and core up 0.2 percent. My reading is that hike odds this high mean a soft print is the surprise that moves markets most, because a hot print only confirms what is already priced in, while a soft print forces traders to reprice December fast.
If CPI comes in soft, does the December hike get priced out, or does the Fed hike anyway? 🤔
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#Crypto #Bitcoin #FuturesTrading #TradingSignals #Fed
The CME FedWatch tool cited by CoinDesk and Blockonomi puts about an 80 to 85 percent chance on a quarter point rate increase at the Fed meeting on 9 December, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller has said he favoured a higher rate even if inflation cooled. 📊 The October CPI report lands at 18:30 PKT today, with economists expecting headline inflation up 0.3 percent and core up 0.2 percent. My reading is that hike odds this high mean a soft print is the surprise that moves markets most, because a hot print only confirms what is already priced in, while a soft print forces traders to reprice December fast.
If CPI comes in soft, does the December hike get priced out, or does the Fed hike anyway? 🤔
Follow for more trades.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #FuturesTrading #TradingSignals #Fed
