Fed & Macro Playbook — 3 Scenarios + Our Expectation 📊
With no FOMC meeting in November, this week's inflation data & Fedspeak decide the odds for the Dec 8–9 Fed decision:
🟢 Bullish (Dovish Relief): Soft print cools Dec hike odds. USDT.D rejects the 7.25% -OB and $BTC reclaims $75.6k–$76.6k to start the squeeze to $80k–$84.9k+.
🟡 Neutral (In-Line): Both-sided leverage sweep around $73.5k–$74.2k ($BTC) before grinding higher into mid-November.
🔴 Bearish (Hawkish Shock): Hot print prices in a Dec hike, triggering one final stop-hunt wick into $72.8k–$73.5k ($BTC ) and $1,925–$2,037 ($ETH ) before bottoming.
🎯 Our Expectation: The flush from $81.2k to $73.4k already priced in most of the hawkish fear. Keep your final 30% limit bids at $72.8k–$73.5k to catch any data wick, ride the mid-Nov short squeeze.
With no FOMC meeting in November, this week's inflation data & Fedspeak decide the odds for the Dec 8–9 Fed decision:
🟢 Bullish (Dovish Relief): Soft print cools Dec hike odds. USDT.D rejects the 7.25% -OB and $BTC reclaims $75.6k–$76.6k to start the squeeze to $80k–$84.9k+.
🟡 Neutral (In-Line): Both-sided leverage sweep around $73.5k–$74.2k ($BTC) before grinding higher into mid-November.
🔴 Bearish (Hawkish Shock): Hot print prices in a Dec hike, triggering one final stop-hunt wick into $72.8k–$73.5k ($BTC ) and $1,925–$2,037 ($ETH ) before bottoming.
🎯 Our Expectation: The flush from $81.2k to $73.4k already priced in most of the hawkish fear. Keep your final 30% limit bids at $72.8k–$73.5k to catch any data wick, ride the mid-Nov short squeeze.