$BTC Daily Forecast | Mon 9 Nov 2026
$BTC $74,262 (-2.19% 24h). A Sunday flush ran $76,201 to a $73,469 low on heavy weekend volume (1,320 $BTC ), breaking the 200-day EMA ($75,719). Fear & Greed 29 (Fear).
09:00 London forecast
Tue 10 Nov: $74,020 (68%: $72,545-75,495 | 90%: $71,595-76,445)
Wed 11 Nov: $73,470 (68%: $71,400-75,540 | 90%: $70,070-76,870)
Scenarios (Tue): bull 12% / base 47% / bear 41%
Why the model leans lower
1. Trend (-0.60): spot is under the EMA10 ($76,923), EMA20 ($78,384), EMA50 ($79,401) and now the EMA200 ($75,719). Highs have stepped down from $81.2k on 4-Nov.
2. ETF flows (-0.46): last session (6-Nov) -$412m; 3-session -$768m, 7-session -$1.91bn. Monday's print is pending.
3. Funding (-0.10): +7.5% annualised now (24h mean +18.2% vs +21.0%), OI ~6,150 $BTC . Some longs were flushed but the book is not yet washed out.
4. Sentiment (+0.10): Fear & Greed 29 is contrarian-positive and limits the downside skew.
5. Liquidity: 1,320 $BTC traded in the last window vs 248 the window before, so the break had real volume behind it. Vol multiplier x1.0 (weekdays).
6. Macro (-0.05): no confirmed catalyst for the drop; small negative.
Net weighted bias: -0.11 (mild bearish).
Key levels
Support: $73.5k (Sunday low), then $72.5k (bottom of the 68% band). A break opens $72.9k / $72.3k.
Resistance: $75.5k (top of the 68% band), then $75.7k (EMA200). Reclaiming it targets $75.9k / $76.6k.
Scenario detail
Bull: relief bounce back toward the EMA200 as shorts cover.
Base: chop near $74.2k under the broken EMA200.
Bear: outflows persist, $73.5k fails.
Scorecard: our 9-Nov call was $75,780 vs $73,867 actual (2.59% miss, high). Volatility recalibrated 1.65% -> 1.99%/day; bias to -0.20%.
Full report + dashboard: metaitraders.com
(c) Alpha DeepFi (approved Square creator) / MetaiTraders. No reposting. Not financial advice, DYOR.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoForecast #BTCPrediction #CryptoMarket
$BTC $74,262 (-2.19% 24h). A Sunday flush ran $76,201 to a $73,469 low on heavy weekend volume (1,320 $BTC ), breaking the 200-day EMA ($75,719). Fear & Greed 29 (Fear).
09:00 London forecast
Tue 10 Nov: $74,020 (68%: $72,545-75,495 | 90%: $71,595-76,445)
Wed 11 Nov: $73,470 (68%: $71,400-75,540 | 90%: $70,070-76,870)
Scenarios (Tue): bull 12% / base 47% / bear 41%
Why the model leans lower
1. Trend (-0.60): spot is under the EMA10 ($76,923), EMA20 ($78,384), EMA50 ($79,401) and now the EMA200 ($75,719). Highs have stepped down from $81.2k on 4-Nov.
2. ETF flows (-0.46): last session (6-Nov) -$412m; 3-session -$768m, 7-session -$1.91bn. Monday's print is pending.
3. Funding (-0.10): +7.5% annualised now (24h mean +18.2% vs +21.0%), OI ~6,150 $BTC . Some longs were flushed but the book is not yet washed out.
4. Sentiment (+0.10): Fear & Greed 29 is contrarian-positive and limits the downside skew.
5. Liquidity: 1,320 $BTC traded in the last window vs 248 the window before, so the break had real volume behind it. Vol multiplier x1.0 (weekdays).
6. Macro (-0.05): no confirmed catalyst for the drop; small negative.
Net weighted bias: -0.11 (mild bearish).
Key levels
Support: $73.5k (Sunday low), then $72.5k (bottom of the 68% band). A break opens $72.9k / $72.3k.
Resistance: $75.5k (top of the 68% band), then $75.7k (EMA200). Reclaiming it targets $75.9k / $76.6k.
Scenario detail
Bull: relief bounce back toward the EMA200 as shorts cover.
Base: chop near $74.2k under the broken EMA200.
Bear: outflows persist, $73.5k fails.
Scorecard: our 9-Nov call was $75,780 vs $73,867 actual (2.59% miss, high). Volatility recalibrated 1.65% -> 1.99%/day; bias to -0.20%.
Full report + dashboard: metaitraders.com
(c) Alpha DeepFi (approved Square creator) / MetaiTraders. No reposting. Not financial advice, DYOR.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoForecast #BTCPrediction #CryptoMarket
